South Africa remains on track for a record year of renewables additions this year, new research by the Power Futures Lab at the UCT Graduate School of Business has confirmed.

A briefing note written by Olakunle Alao and Wikus Kruger states that 17 independent power producer (IPP) projects with a combined capacity of 1 920 MW entered into commercial operation in the first six months of 2026.

The period recorded the country’s largest-ever half-year additions and exceeded the previous full-year record of 1 472 MW, achieved in 2016.

“A further 28 IPP projects (2 202 MW) are expected to reach commercial operation in the second half, which would take full-year 2026 to roughly 4 123 MW, more than double the previous record.”

Of the 17 commissioned projects, ten are privately procured, with a combined capacity of 1 046 MW and electricity being sold to mining or industrial offtakers.

The other seven projects (874 MW) have been procured under Bid Windows 5 and 6 of government’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme, and the Risk Mitigation Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme.

Wind reached commercial operations across seven projects for a combined 815 MW during the six-month period.

The majority of the projects entering into commercial operation during the period achieved financial close in 2024.

The note, thus, draws attention to the fact that financial- close announcements were more muted during the period.

Only one project – the 77 MW/308 MWh Hartebeesfontein Battery Energy Storage System – achieved the milestone in the second quarter, after eight were announced between January 1 and April 30.

“This does not necessarily indicate weaker investor appetite.

Some projects may be taking longer to clear the final commercial and grid-connection steps,” the note reads.

The authors highlight that the connection process is multi- staged, and that developers have reported delays in processing and in coordination between Eskom’s Grid Access Unit and the National Transmission Company South Africa.

They emphasise that it is not yet clear how much of the current slippage can be attributed to these factors.

However, the note has been published against the backdrop of far-reaching regulatory changes, which are yet to be finalised, as well as renewed uncertainty over Eskom’s decommissioning schedule for its coal-fired power stations.