Namibia, Mozambique and South Africa could look very different by the early 2030s. Namibia could be a significant deepwater oil producer, Mozambique one of the world’s more important liquefied natural gas (LNG) suppliers and South Africa a regional gas-demand, infrastructure and services hub.

Energy consultancy Rystad Energy analyst Fiza Jan warns, however, that production alone will not determine whether the region benefits. If each country tries to reproduce the entire supply chain domestically, Southern Africa risks creating “three relatively expensive small ecosystems instead of one competitive larger one”.

Jan argues that the benefits should extend beyond oil and gas production revenues to lasting industrial capacity and regional supply chain. Offshore development creates demand for ports, marine logistics, engineering, fabrication, subsea services, training and financial services. Whether Southern Africa captures that value depends on whether governments pursue open regional markets or isolated national value chains.

“Ultimately, I would measure success not simply by how many barrels or LNG cargoes Southern Africa exports, but by how much permanent industrial capacity, skills, infrastructure and competitive business activity remain in the region after the initial construction boom has passed,” says Jan.

Different Strengths, Different Customers

The three countries will compete for capital, skilled labour, contractors and management attention. Commercially, though, she says their positions are more complementary than they first appear. 

“They compete in the investment committee, but they do not necessarily compete for the same customer.”

Namibia is predominantly an oil story, Mozambique’s largest opportunity lies in LNG, and South Africa is a major regional consumer of gas and energy infrastructure. Mozambique therefore competes more directly with Qatar, the US and other global LNG developers than with Namibia’s offshore oil projects.

Each country could contribute something different to a regional ecosystem. Namibia has the opportunity to use Lüderitz and Walvis Bay to build a deep-water services base. That base could support not only its own fields, but also exploration elsewhere in the Orange Basin.

Mozambique can develop LNG and gas expertise. Its gas can also feed the domestic economy directly through gas-to-power, liquefied petroleum gas and potentially fertiliser, chemicals and other gas-based industries. Jan draws a distinction between simply exporting LNG and using part of the resource to improve electricity availability and industrial competitiveness at home.

South Africa could capture a disproportionate share of regional spillovers because it already has Southern Africa’s deepest industrial, financial, engineering and manufacturing base. 

Jan sees a possible arrangement in which Namibia becomes a major oil producer and Mozambique the major gas exporter. South Africa would then form part of the services, processing, financing and demand ecosystem supporting both.

Timing could make or break that ecosystem. If several  large developments move at the same time, Jan says they could drive up regional labour, logistics and contractor costs. If they are sequenced, the expertise and infrastructure built for one project can migrate to the next.

Integration will also depend first on commercial arrangements rather than on new pipelines, she argues. Governments need predictable regulation, competitive tariffs, third-party infrastructure access, bankable cross-border contracts and creditworthy buyers. Infrastructure generally follows once those are in place.

A precedent already exists. Gas from Mozambique’s Pande and Temane fields has flowed through the roughly 865 km ROMPCO pipeline into South Africa for more than two decades. This shows that regional gas trade works when governments, producers, pipeline companies and customers have aligned commercial interests.

In future, integration is likely to come increasingly through LNG, electricity trade, shared ports, common service hubs and regional supply chains. Namibia’s deepwater oil will largely make sense as a seaborne export business, and Mozambique’s LNG can reach international or regional markets by ship. South Africa could provide LNG import, storage, regasification and downstream demand infrastructure.

Projects Still Have to Happen

None of this materialises unless the projects reach production. Jan says the key challenge is no longer discovering resources, but converting them into commercially competitive developments.

Namibia must turn large discoveries into competitive deepwater developments while building an offshore supply chain almost from scratch. TotalEnergies’ Venus project, in PEL 56, envisages a first phase of about 150 000 bbl/d through a floating production, storage and offloading vessel, with first oil around 2030. TotalEnergies has also taken over operatorship of Galp’s neighbouring Mopane discoveries, which Jan says could reach a final investment decision (FID) in 2028.

“The fact that Venus has reached an advanced technical stage but FID discussions have continued into 2026 illustrates that even a strong reservoir must still clear the commercial threshold,” she notes.

Mozambique’s resource is proven at enormous scale, and its main risks lie in security, financing and megaproject execution. Eni’s 3.6-million-tonne-a-year Coral North floating LNG project is under development for start-up around 2028. The 13.1-million-tonne-a-year Mozambique LNG project resumed construction this year after a suspension that began in 2021. ExxonMobil is pushing the 18.6-million-tonne-a-year first phase of Rovuma LNG towards FID.

Delivered alongside the producing Coral South facility, these projects could take Mozambique close to 40-million tonnes a year of LNG capacity. Jan cautions that the experience since 2021 shows how quickly security conditions in Cabo Delgado can change project schedules.

South Africa is at an earlier upstream stage and probably faces the greatest monetisation risk. The Brulpadda and Luiperd gas discoveries still need environmental approvals, a production right, development capital and bankable domestic offtake. The country’s more immediate concern is supply, as output from Pande and Temane declines towards the end of the decade. Sasol is planning only a bridging solution beyond 2028 while the market transitions to longer-term LNG supply.

Jan says new gas supply therefore has a defensive value for South Africa. It can help preserve existing gas-consuming industries as Mozambican pipeline supply runs down.

Capturing the full value requires looking beyond production targets, says Jan. Security in Mozambique must remain stable enough for long-duration investment. Namibia needs predictable fiscal terms and careful management of a rapid build-out. South Africa needs to resolve permitting and create bankable gas markets.

All three need investment in people, ports and supporting infrastructure. Regional electricity and gas trade must also become easier.

“The biggest opportunity is to avoid duplicating every part of the value chain in each country and instead build a more competitive regional ecosystem,” Jan concludes.