With China's suspension of its ban on antimony exports to the US scheduled to expire on November 27, buyers and manufacturers face an important decision point for supply planning, sourcing strategies and price risk management, says research and consulting company Polaris Market Research. 

Polaris estimates the global antimony market was worth $1.12-billion in 2025 but is poised to reach $1.85-billion by 2034, marking a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7%.

China's suspension of the US-specific export ban does not remove its broader export licensing requirements for antimony. For international buyers, the November 27 deadline therefore raises questions about the availability and cost of material.

If the suspension is extended, buyers may get a clearer picture of supply availability and continue rebuilding inventories. However, China's export licensing rules and dominant share of global production may still affect prices and delivery times.

Without an extension, US buyers could lose access to Chinese antimony. This could increase demand for supplies from other sources and result in higher prices. The actual impact will depend on China's decision, available stock, market demand and how quickly other producers can increase supply, Polaris explains.

The company suggests that, before the deadline, procurement teams can reduce risks by working with multiple suppliers and securing reliable contracts.

Polaris lists the key demand drivers for antimony as being the defence, solar glass and batteries, and flame retardants markets. Antimony is used in ammunition, specialised alloys and other defence applications, while being useful in flame-retardant systems for plastics, rubber and textiles. Antimony alloys also strengthen lead-acid battery grids. 

Polaris says growing interest in secure supplies is increasing attention on domestic antimony production and sourcing.

"The antimony supply chain remains concentrated in a few countries, making alternative sources important for buyers. To reduce its dependence on imports, the US is supporting domestic mining and processing projects.

"In Idaho, Perpetua Resources is developing the Stibnite project, the only identified US antimony reserve. Australia is also contributing to supply diversification. In February 2026, Nyrstar's Port Pirie smelter produced its first shipment of antimony metal, marking progress in expanding supply outside China," Polaris states.

These developments could improve supply options between 2027 and 2030. However, new projects need investment, infrastructure and time to increase production. Recycling may also help meet demand.

To reduce the risk of disruptions buyers will continue to focus on alternative suppliers and reliable supply contracts.

"Whichever way Beijing decides on November 27, the direction for buyers is already set. Defence and energy users are now paying for supply security, not just the lowest price, and that is why North America is emerging as a fast-growing antimony market. Buyers who lock in non-China contracts before year-end will carry far less price risk into 2027," comments Polaris senior analyst Apurva Agarwal.

Current key antimony developers globally include AMG Critical Materials, Antimony Resources, Campine, China Minmetals Corporation, Hsikwangshan Twinkling Star, Hunan Gold Corporation, Korea Zinc, Larvotto Resources, Nihon Seiko, Perpetua Resources and United States Antimony Corporation.

By product, antimony trioxide and other compounds held the largest product-form share in 2025, accounting for 57% of the antimony market in the year. By application, flame retardants held the largest share of the market at 54% in 2025, with the glass and ceramics segment expected to grow at the fastest rate with CAGR of 6.32% through 2034.

By region, Asia Pacific was the largest regional market for antimony, accounting for 74% of global antimony revenue in 2025. However, North America is projected to be the fastest-growing region with an antimony market CAGR of 5.96% through 2034.