A Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) Ministerial Order banning the export of copper and cobalt concentrates, which also introduces a new tax regime, is unlikely to have a material impact on either the global copper or cobalt market, but could add a near-term risk premium to copper prices while details of the policy are clarified, BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, posits.

On August 6, Reuters reported that the DRC has banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates, citing a joint Ministerial order dated June 29, signed by Mines Minister Louis Kabamba Watum, Foreign Trade Minister Julien Paluku Kahongya and Economy Minister Daniel Mukoko Samba.

The order, which was later released publicly by the DRC Ministry of Mines, states that ‘the export of copper and cobalt concentrates is prohibited’ and takes effect immediately, although one-year waivers may be granted under ‘strategic circumstances.’

The order also introduces a new tax regime for economically significant mining by-products, with a three-month transition period.

BMI explains that since the mid-2010s, the DRC has operated a de facto ban on exports of unbeneficiated copper and cobalt concentrates, with ad hoc exemptions granted to select mining companies where domestic processing capacity was insufficient or where said companies committed to investing in local processing.

“We therefore interpret the new policy as a shift to a de jure ban with tighter rules around waivers and exemptions on the export of concentrates,” the company avers.

For copper, about 13% of the DRC’s copper exports last year were contained in concentrates, with most of the rest exported as refined copper cathodes, BMI points out.

The former equates to about 400 000 t of copper metal, or about 1.7% of global copper mine production, it elaborates.

“While a loss of this magnitude has the potential to push the delicate copper market balance into deficit, we note that the DRC should have some spare capacity to smelt additional copper concentrates domestically, given the recent commissioning of the Kamoa-Kakula smelter, which has a nameplate capacity of 500 000 t/y,” BMI predicts.

Currently, the Kamoa-Kakula mine is producing copper feedstock well below the smelter’s nameplate capacity, owing to the residual impact of a seismic incident last year, which caused much of the underground mine to flood.

Therefore, there is a possibility for Kamoa-Kakula’s owners, Ivanhoe Mines and Zijin Mining, to allow neighbouring copper mines to process concentrates at the Kamoa-Kakula smelter if those miners are unable to negotiate waivers with Kinshasa, provided spare capacity exists and third-party feed is technically and commercially viable, BMI hypothesises.

It notes that Ivanhoe themselves smelt a portion of their copper concentrate output at the nearby Lualaba copper smelter, which is 60% owned by Mainland China’s CNMC.

“For this reason, we are not yet revising down our DRC copper mine production forecasts for this year or 2027, which we have already revised down this year following the aforementioned disruption at Kamoa-Kakula,” the company reassures.

Meanwhile, it says that, for cobalt, the ban is “even less impactful than for copper”.

According to trade data published by the Congolese authorities, almost all cobalt that leaves the DRC leaves as cobalt hydroxide, an intermediate product after concentrate but before battery-grade cobalt, the company explains.

The more important policy constraint remains the quota system introduced after the temporary cobalt export ban last year, it adds.

The DRC has set cobalt export quotas at 96 000 t for this year, including a 10% strategic allocation, equivalent to less than half the DRC's cobalt exports in 2024.

“As a result, the concentrate ban should have a limited incremental impact on the cobalt market unless the authorities extend restrictions to cobalt hydroxide,” BMI predicts.

It mentions a secondary risk as fiscal, rather than physical.

“The new order reportedly introduces a tax regime for economically significant mining by-products, which could affect profit margins at select mining operations. Among other things, this new measure could potentially target the beneficiaries of the recent squeeze on supplies of sulphuric acid, which some copper smelters in the DRC produce as a by-product,” the company cautions.

BMI highlights that this policy shift has “injected fresh bullish impetus into an already buoyant market”, with LME copper prices touching $14 369.50/t on August 6 (following the news reports) – the highest level since January 29, when the red metal registered an all-time high of $14 528/t.

The ban comes amid sustained upward momentum on Comex, where prices climbed to a fresh record high of $14 781/t on August 5, lifting year-to-date gains to 18.2%, it adds.

“With copper now edging closer to historical peaks and bullish sentiment over market tightness accumulating across multiple fronts, the near term trajectory for copper appears skewed firmly to the upside,” BMI predicts.

Copper prices have already averaged $13 228/t in the year-to date, as of August 6, and the company notes that upside risks to its current price forecast are building copper may average closer to $13 500/t this year.

“Copper is being buoyed by positive sentiment towards the global economy as hopes of a deal between the US and Iran are renewed, intense stocking up on the Comex as US tariff risks mount, a slightly weaker US dollar in recent days, and the DRC’s announcement – despite its minimal material impact on physical trade,” the company avers.

For cobalt, BMI maintains its cobalt price forecast at $25/lb this year and $22.50/lb in 2027, and continues to expect the DRC to lift slightly its cap on cobalt exports to about 120 000 t in 2027.

“As predicted, the quota system has not worked as intended. After rising sharply in the aftermath of the export restrictions last year, cobalt prices have mostly traded sideways in 2026 as battery makers continue to reduce reliance on cobalt-rich battery chemistries, while new sources of cobalt supply come online at mixed hydroxide precipitate operations in Indonesia,” the company points out.

“Additionally, we are aware of no major mining or processing companies announcing the construction of new battery-grade cobalt refineries in the DRC since the export restrictions were put in place,” it adds.

BMI also warns that, more broadly, this development in the DRC shows that resource nationalism in the continent is likely to remain, with other countries also following similar trajectories.

“As commodity prices continue to climb higher in the coming years, fuelled by the energy transition, AI optimism and over a decade of underinvestment in new supply, resource nationalism is likely to grow in both scale and scope,” it predicts.