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THE LONG WAIT
By: Martin Creamer 1st April 2016 The price of the basket of platinum-group metals (PGMs) in dollars is so low that even when converted into rands, it is still way off that of its precious metal cousin, gold, which has not only increased in dollars, but also moved into record territory in rands. Regrettably, the dollar prices of... →
DEFINING MOMENT
By: Darlene Creamer 1st April 2016 The Hollywood blockbuster Armageddon comes to mind as the rating agencies deliberate on whether or not to downgrade South Africa to junk. It’s time for Bruce Willis-style heroics. To prevail, the agencies will need to be convinced that we are not only ready to restore our fiscal balances, but... →
IRON-WILLED, IRON-FISTED
By: Martin Creamer 25th March 2016 A bitter fight is under way Down Under over the deliberate over-supply of iron-ore by major producers as a way of crushing competitors. But all that has been crushed, say smaller iron-ore producers, is the Australian economy. Cliffs Natural Resources CE Laurenco Goncalves pulled no punches at the... →
JUNK-AVOIDANCE CHECKLIST
By: Darlene Creamer 25th March 2016 There is no doubting Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan’s determination to navigate South Africa through the stormy waters of the upcoming credit-rating reviews. However, he has also made it clear that there is no single junk-avoidance magic bullet, with the Budget comprising but one component. The... →
TRUCULENT TAX TERRIER
By: Martin Creamer 18th March 2016 The South African Revenue Service (Sars) is digging up the past and imposing sky-high tax assessments on objecting mining companies. Sars first bit Kumba Iron Ore’s Sishen Iron Ore Company, on which it imposed a R5.5-billion assessment. Now the truculent tax terrier has locked its jaws on Exxaro,... →
SERIOUS THREAT
By: Darlene Creamer 18th March 2016 South Africa’s prevailing drought is exacting a toll on the economy, on jobs and on food prices. Employment in agriculture decreased by 37 000 in the fourth quarter of last year, while wilting agricultural production is contributing to South Africa’s weak growth forecast. But food price increases... →
THE LAST STRAW
By: Martin Creamer 11th March 2016 South African Revenue Service (Sars) has imposed a R5.5-billion tax assessment imposed on the Sishen Iron Ore Company (SIOC) for the tax years 2006 to 2010. To add insult to injury, the assessment includes R3.7-billion in interest and penalties. SIOC, in which JSE-listed Kumba Iron Ore has a... →
EXTREMELY FRAGILE
By: Darlene Creamer 11th March 2016 The difficulty of South Africa’s balancing act in avoiding a downgrade of its investment-grade credit rating cannot be underestimated. The fragility of the situation became strongly evident recently when doubts emerged over whether Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan still enjoyed political support... →
THE OUTLIER
By: Martin Creamer 4th March 2016 When a mining company is international it has the advantage of being able to compare jurisdictions and performance. One company which has done that graphically for the past two quarters is AngloGold Ashanti and the performance of South African gold mines within its constellation of 19 operations... →
TIRED STRATEGY
By: Darlene Creamer 4th March 2016 It came as a huge relief when there were no opposition-party disruptions in Parliament during Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan’s Budget Speech. While the strategy was fairly effective in 2015, many South Africans have grown weary of the method. Hopefully opposition lawmakers will find new and more... →
ELEPHANT TO MOUSE
By: Martin Creamer 26th February 2016 The once-iconic Anglo American, an important participant in the development of the South African economy, is in the process of becoming a pale shadow of its former self. A company that had 650 assets in the 1980s is heading for a mere 16 assets in 2016. In between, it dropped its primary listing... →
IT'S ECONOMY CLASS, STUPID!
By: Darlene Creamer 26th February 2016 It was refreshing to see Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan flying economy from Cape Town to Johannesburg. Hopefully the rest of Cabinet will follow suit. It was less refreshing to learn of yet another delay to the publication of South African Airways’ annual report, which should have been released... →
BUYERS' MARKET
By: Martin Creamer 19th February 2016 “When they cry, it’s time to buy”, goes the saying that potential investors and bankers are currently directing towards the stressed resources sector. US Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes describes the entire mining industry’s stocks as resembling “a big Walmart sale”, in what has become the... →
SLASH & TAX
By: Darlene Creamer 19th February 2016 It’s a case of ‘Back to the Future 2’ with Pravin Gordhan returning to Parliament as Finance Minister after a two-year break – a sequel that rises from the ashes of the near-calamitous shuffling of the portfolio by President Jacob Zuma between December 9 and 13. As with his last appearance,... →
JOB CUTS
By: Martin Creamer 12th February 2016 Mining companies in South Africa have given advance notice of 32 000 job cuts as commodity prices decline, Mineral Resources Minister Mosebenzi Zwane has told the media. Mining accounts for more than half of South Africa’s exports and employs 440 000 people, which is critical in a country with a... →
BUDGET SURGERY
By: Darlene Creamer 12th February 2016 There is little question that Budget 2016 will be watched even more closely than usual following the upheavals of December. There is also very little room of manoeuvre, with Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan address to be critical in determining whether or not South Africa is downgraded to junk. He... →
EDGING TOWARDS FIRE SALES
By: Martin Creamer 5th February 2016 Mining companies in asset-disposal mode have been at pains to assure shareholders that fire sales of mining assets will not be countenanced. But as conditions worsen, there are early signs that some are edging towards concluding that getting low prices may be better than not getting anything at... →
STORM WARNING
By: Darlene Creamer 5th February 2016 While many parts of South Africa are in dire need of rain, the dark clouds on the horizon are, sadly, mostly of the economic variety. The country’s growth prospects are weak, investor confidence is low and the price outlook for many of the commodities we mine and export is miserable. →
ROCKY AND ROUGH
By: Martin Creamer 29th January 2016 There is a lot of bearish talk in mining right now as the Chinese economy slows more rapidly than expected, low commodity prices drive down prospects and profit growth looks far off. Mining assets are being subjected to the words sell, close, downsize and cut as mining-company CEOs resist going... →
BALLOONING RAND GOLD PRICE
By: Martin Creamer 22nd January 2016 The gold price in rands has ballooned well beyond the R550 000/kg level, which is a great source of relief to the hard-pressed gold-mining industry and its shareholders, who saw share values rise sharply in a non-gold-mining world currently characterised by sharp share value decline. But the cost... →
CURRENCY CRUNCH
By: Darlene Creamer 22nd January 2016 The rand ended the year under intense pressure after currency traders reacted negatively to President Jacob Zuma’s shock decision to remove Nhlanhla Nene as Finance Minister and replace him with the little known David ‘Des’ van Rooyen. It recovered, but remained under pressure even after the... →
RESTRICTED MOBILITY
By: Martin Creamer 15th January 2016 Mining is merely moving from its 2015 annus horribilis to its 2016 year of misfortune. The share prices of mining companies are retaining their bottom-of-the-barrel penchant, commodity prices are remaining in the doldrums and over supply is refusing to depart the scene. Still well in the red on... →
IN A BUBBLE
By: Darlene Creamer 15th January 2016 There are more and more signs that President Jacob Zuma is in a classical ‘presidential bubble’. He has surrounded himself with people who agree with him and he appears increasingly insensitive to the harsh realities being faced by South African citizens and by business. Could it burst before 2019? →
SNAP OUT OF IT
By: Martin Creamer 11th December 2015 Seven-year-old Snap Lake diamond mine in Canada, which has still to turn a profit, will have to snap out of it or be snapped off. News reports state that closure is one of the options De Beers is considering for its first mine to come into production outside of Africa. The Northwest Territories... →
TALL ORDER
By: Darlene Creamer 11th December 2015 The board at the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa no doubt faces an uphill battle in attempting the extricate the organisaiton form a R5-billion contract with Swifambo Rail Leasing, which procured locomotives from Vossloh, of Spain, that seemingly don’t even meet the basic technical... →
HURRY UP
By: Martin Creamer 4th December 2015 South Africa can score quick wins with the right focus, Goldman Sachs Sub-Saharan Africa investment banking head Colin Coleman said last week after presenting data-rich evidence of South Africa’s financial sector and corporate strong points. Speaking at the Gordon Institute of Business Science,... →
GOVERNANCE DESCENT
By: Darlene Creamer 4th December 2015 Developments at South African Airways are more than troubling. The national carrier’s already difficult turnaround journey is being made intolerably turbulent by its politically connected chairperson, Dudu Myeni. Even more troubling is the damage her disregard for good governance is having on the... →
BATTEN DOWN MORE
By: Martin Creamer 27th November 2015 An endless battening down of hatches is under way in the mining industry, where bearish macroeconomic news out of China and a now-likely US interest rate rise in December, continues to hurl commodity prices on stormy waters. The threat of rising financing costs in the current environment is... →
MOOD LIFTER
By: Darlene Creamer 27th November 2015 Amid all the bad news and in the same week that lawmakers debated the controversial Protection of Investment Bill, BMW gave South Africans a much needed lift when it announced that it would invest R6-billion into the Rosslyn plant, in Gauteng, to produce the next-generation X3 sports-activity... →
WRONG WAY UP
By: Martin Creamer 20th November 2015 Running a mining business in the current negative environment has been being likened to running up an escalator the wrong way. With prices down and costs up, mining companies go flat out to stay in the same place. “But at least it’s keeping us fit,” AngloGold Ashanti CEO Srinivasan... →
FEATHERS FLY
By: Darlene Creamer 20th November 2015 The long-standing disagreement between South Africa and the US over the ability of the American poultry industry to export chicken pieces to South Africa came to into sharp relief earlier this month when President Barack Obama announced that Africa Growth and Opportunity Act benefits would be... →
STREAMING OVER THE (H)EDGE
By: Martin Creamer 13th November 2015 Hedging is so yesterday and streaming is so today with streamers buying up metals still in the ground at low, fixed, predetermined prices and sellers getting large upfront amounts followed by ongoing trickles. A long-term streaming agreement was last week entered into between Glencore's wholly... →
LAST STRAW
By: Darlene Creamer 13th November 2015 The South African economy is under tremendous strain. Growth has been weak ever since the 2008/9 global financial crisis and the country’s immediate economic prospects are weighed down by the deceleration in China, the associated fall in commodity prices, domestic electricity shortages and poor... →
INDUSTRY WRECKING BALL
By: Martin Creamer 6th November 2015 The Davis Committee on Tax, which was tasked in the 2013 Budget with supporting inclusive growth, employment and development, may not be taking these terms of reference to seriously judging from the one-size-fits-all recommendations that take a wrecking ball to mining. Felled by the... →
GAPS EVERYWHERE
By: Darlene Creamer 6th November 2015 South Africa is facing funding shortfalls on an increasing number of fronts as tax revenues come under pressure and social demands rise. The most recent gap emerged when it was decided to hold back on university fee increases for 2016. But government is also having to scramble to cover... →
WRONGLY INCENTIVISED
By: Martin Creamer 30th October 2015 Mining company shareholders have become emaciated watching CEOs making a ton of money, investment bankers a killing and fund managers a nice spread. To blame is misguided share price incentives and rubber-stamping boards of directors, who also score from the system. That message came over loudly... →
HARD TIMES
By: Darlene Creamer 30th October 2015 Despite the obvious disjuncture between the scenes inside the Parliamentary chamber last week and those occurring on the streets outside, there was concurrence, at both events, on one theme: students want to pay less, as they and their parents or benefactors feel the pinch of an underperforming... →
'SOLD' IS THE NEW BOLD
By: Martin Creamer 23rd October 2015 Anglo American Platinum has sold its Rustenburg Platinum and is offering Union Platinum for sale. Anglo American has sold the Mantos Blancos and Mantoverde copper mines in Chile to investment company Audley Capital of the UK and is also, according Chilean media, fine-tuning details to unload the... →
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