Two of Sub-Saharan Africa’s strongest unserved routes still have no direct flight: Johannesburg to Mumbai, and Brussels to Cape Town. Both appear in the Airbus Exploring the Horizons study among high-demand corridors where passengers continue to route through a third city because no carrier has yet launched a service.

Some of the continent’s connectivity gaps have narrowed over the past year. Qantas added Perth to Johannesburg, Edelweiss introduced its A350 service to Windhoek, Air Congo announced a Brussels link to Kinshasa, and Ethiopian secured approval to serve Mauritius. If those routes can move from proposal to operation, why do others with similarly strong demand remain unserved?

That question sat at the centre of a discussion at AviaDev Africa 2026 in Gaborone, the continent’s main route development forum, where airlines, airports and tourism bodies meet to build new air links. It was chaired by Natalia Rosa, Project Lead at the Southern Africa Tourism Alliance (SATA).

The panel agreed that none of the stakeholders can make a route work alone. Airports need traffic, tourism boards need visitors and airlines need confidence that travellers have a reason to come. Rosa described it as a relationship, but as Keira Langford-Johnson, Business Development Director at Proflight Zambia, pointed out, not an equal one. The airline carries the risk, committing aircraft, crew and operating costs long before it knows whether demand will materialise.

Those costs do not move with the load. A half-empty aircraft burns much the same fuel as a full one, and no marketing campaign can change that. Airlines therefore look for evidence that demand will persist beyond a route launch. What they need, Langford-Johnson said, is proof that the market can sustain itself once the initial excitement fades. Too often that evidence never reaches the table. “What are people doing after they arrive? Where do they go? How do they move? That’s the data that builds a route,” she said.

Rupert Kraus of Discover Airlines, part of the Lufthansa Group, described a similar approach. Passenger numbers alone are rarely enough. He wants to see broader indicators of growth: hotels being developed, cargo volumes increasing and new industries investing in a destination. “If I only looked at the data in front of me, I'd struggle to justify the route,” he said.

With a limited fleet and a growing list of potential destinations competing for capacity, airlines need confidence that a market can support service over the long term rather than generate short bursts of demand.

The data exists, Kraus argued, yet it remains fragmented. Road transfer operators, charter companies and tourism businesses already collect much of the information airlines need to assess whether a route can succeed: who is travelling, where they are going, when they are travelling and in what numbers. Together, those datasets provide a far richer picture of demand than airlines often receive.

Langford-Johnson illustrated the point with three of Proflight Zambia’s recent routes into Livingstone, Maun and Windhoek, all of which emerged from conversations at AviaDev. None were obvious additions to the network, and Proflight does not launch new routes lightly. What changed was the preparation. Airport authorities, tourism boards and regulators arrived with a 72-page business case covering demand, market potential, operating costs and demographics. When information was missing, the airline asked for it and the partners supplied it. “If you're not exchanging something, it's just a meeting,” she said. The partners brought the evidence, helping build the confidence Proflight needed to launch the route.

Gathering the evidence is only part of the process. Keeping stakeholders aligned can be harder. As Tatamo Rakotozafy, Head of Aeronautical Activities at Ravinala Airports, explained, tourism authorities, airports and governments often approach route development with different priorities and measures of success.

The route is more likely to move forward when stakeholders can align around a shared economic objective. That common purpose becomes especially important when political priorities change or commercial pressures emerge.

Rakotozafy was describing alignment within a country. Justice Ofentse, Acting CEO of the Botswana Tourism Organisation (BTO), argued that the same principle applies across borders. Smaller destinations, he said, are often more effective when they approach airlines collectively rather than competing against one another for the same aircraft and investment.

His argument was that the region should present itself as a single market, rather than a collection of individual destinations each making separate pitches to carriers.

One event could supply exactly the evidence airlines keep asking for. The 2027 T20 Cricket World Cup, shared by South Africa, Namibia and Zimbabwe, is expected to move more than 340,000 people across the three countries.

As Ofentse suggested, the tournament will test whether the three countries can present themselves to travellers as a connected destination instead of three separate markets.

Bronwen Auret, Chief Quality Assurance Officer at South African Tourism, acknowledged that creating that level of coordination requires effort well beyond the tourism sector. The tournament, however, provides a practical opportunity to bring together air access planning, tourism promotion and regional cooperation around a single event.

If the planning is done well, she argued, it could also generate valuable data on how visitors moved through the region and where demand was concentrated.

Those patterns are the evidence airlines keep asking for. Whether the region can bring them together into a convincing demand case may determine which of its long-discussed routes finally move from proposal to schedule.