The first half of 2026 has brought significant changes across the global chromium value chain. Strong stainless steel production continued to support demand for chrome ore and ferrochrome, while growing raw material supply, rising inventories in China and shifting international trade flows began to move the market away from deficit and towards a more balanced position. In some segments, the industry may even be approaching a period of surplus.

These and other developments raise a number of important questions for market participants. What are the export prospects for South Africa’s ferrochrome industry as major production facilities resume operations? Will further growth in China’s domestic ferrochrome production continue to replace imports? How will the chrome ore market develop against the backdrop of record-high inventories in China? And how will the EU CBAM affect international ferrochrome trade?

These topics will be at the centre of discussions at Chromium 2026 Commodities as Strategic Assets, organised by the International Chromium Development Association (ICDA) in Paris on 10-12 November 2026.

Chrome ore supply continues to expand

South Africa remains at the heart of the global chrome ore market. Shipment volumes stayed high during the first half of the year, while exports increased significantly compared with the previous year. China continued to receive the majority of these shipments, highlighting the close relationship between South African mining and Chinese ferrochrome production.

At the same time, other suppliers are strengthening their positions. Zimbabwe and, to a lesser extent, Türkiye are increasing their exports to China. This geographical diversification gives Chinese consumers a wider range of sourcing options, but it also intensifies competition among exporting countries.

The increase in supply is already having a visible impact on the market. Chrome ore inventories at China’s major ports have reached record levels, signalling greater raw material availability and potentially strengthening the negotiating position of buyers.

The implications of these changes extend far beyond China. For miners, traders and ferrochrome producers, the evolution of supply routes and inventories will be critical to commercial decisions in the second half of 2026 and beyond.

The ferrochrome market is moving towards a new balance

China increased its domestic production of high-carbon ferrochrome in the first half of 2026. Newly commissioned capacity and relatively high operating rates enabled Chinese producers to offset a substantial decline in imports, particularly shipments from South Africa.

This reflects a broader structural change in global trade. South Africa is increasingly supplying China with chrome ore rather than ferrochrome produced from that ore, largely because of the continuing challenges facing the country’s energy sector.

European ferrochrome trade is also entering a new phase. Since 1 January 2026, the EU CBAM has applied to ferrochrome imports. The mechanism requires the embedded emissions associated with imported products to be accounted for and creates corresponding financial obligations for European importers.

For ferrochrome suppliers, importers and consumers, CBAM introduces new commercial and operational considerations. Carbon intensity, emissions reporting and production technology are becoming increasingly relevant to competitiveness and access to the European market.

Stainless steel remains the main driver of chromium demand

The outlook for the chromium industry continues to depend primarily on developments in the stainless steel market. Chinese stainless steel production increased in the first half of 2026, supported by high capacity utilisation, improved profitability among steelmakers and inventory replenishment across the value chain.

However, market conditions became less favourable towards the middle of the year. Demand weakened during the traditional summer slowdown, while inventories of certain products remained high.

Indonesia is also playing an increasingly important role. Its expanding stainless steel production continues to influence regional trade flows, raw material demand and the wider global market balance. The interaction between Chinese and Indonesian production will therefore remain one of the key factors shaping chromium demand.

Join the global chromium industry at Chromium 2026

At a time when the chromium market is being reshaped by expanding supply, changing trade flows, new production capacity, carbon regulation, and geopolitical uncertainty, attending industry gatherings such as Chromium 2026 is more important than ever.

Chromium 2026 will bring the global chromium industry together in Paris from 10 to 12 November 2026. Organised by the International Chromium Development Association, the conference will convene senior executives, decision-makers and experts representing chrome ore mining, ferrochrome production, stainless steel manufacturing, trading, logistics and market analysis.

Participants will hear directly from industry leaders, gain first-hand insights into global and regional market developments, and explore how economic, regulatory and geopolitical changes are affecting the sector.

Join us in Paris on 10-12 November 2026 and be part of the conversation!