Half of Ukraine's steel output at risk over new EU trade regulations
Geospatial intelligence company Earth-i says Ukraine's steel production activity has receded from its January highs and is now tracking 18% lower in the year to June 30, compared with the same months of 2025.
Earth-i, which uses its SAVANT platform to indicate smelter activities worldwide, says Ukraine’s steel production already faces ongoing challenges from wartime logistics, power shortages, and the economic impacts of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
Now with the introduction of EU’s new trade regulation known as the tariff and rate quota system (TRQ) uncertainty has increased for Ukraine’s remaining steelmakers.
The TRQ restricts yearly imports of covered tariff-free steel products to 18.3-million tonnes (down 47% on the 2024 reference).
"It overrides some aspects of the previous exemptions afforded to Ukraine’s steel imports leaving Ukraine's situation to be ‘considered’ by the European Commission when allocating country quotas," Earth-i states.
The country-specific quotas the EU has allocated Ukraine total only 1.05-million tons a year, accounting for less than half of Ukraine's 2024 steel trade into the EU.
The lack of preferential treatment has drawn criticism from ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih and the CE of Metinvest, saying the new EU quota system due on 1 July could “kill the Ukrainian steel industry”.
Specifically for the month of June, Earth-i’s SAVANT data shows Ukraine’s crude steel production decreased by 22% year-on-year.
With frequent electrical outages in the grid, SAVANT is showing that Ukraine’s largest plants, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih (rated at eight-million tons a year) and Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works (rated at 4.1-million tons a year), continue to produce, although only at around 56% and 61% utilisation rates, respectively.
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