Market research firm Mordor Intelligence expects the global lithium carbonate market to grow from 141-million lithium carbonate-equivalent (LCE) tons in 2026 to 3.93-million LCE tons by 2031, marking a 22.74% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), with new projects in Chile and Nevada gradually expanding supply outside of China.

China currently accounts for between 60% and 70% of global lithium refining, yet imports 80% of its spodumene from Australia.

Lithium processing remains concentrated in few regions, creating supply chain risks and dependence on imported raw materials. Mordor explains that new refining projects outside of China often face lengthy approval processes, stringent technical requirements and shortages of skilled workers, which all slow capacity expansion in the lithium industry.

Japan and South Korea, for example, continue to depend heavily on imported battery-grade lithium carbonate, leaving them exposed to changes in regional supply policies.

North America is expanding its lithium carbonate capacity as government incentives encourage local mining, refining and battery production, however, permitting and development timelines remain challenges to more rapid expansion.

Growth in the lithium carbonate industry is supported by the increasing use of lithium iron phosphate batteries which rely on lithium carbonate, along with rising demand for energy storage.

US utility-scale energy storage installments alone this year are poised to reach triple that of the 57.6 GWh figure in 2025.

Mordor comments further in respect of market trends that direct lithium extraction is moving toward broader commercial use, with new methods helping to improve recovery rates, reduce energy use and lower environmental impacts. Recycling is also becoming an integral part of the supply chain by recovering lithium from used battery materials.

With lithium carbonate prices remaining highly sensitive to changes in battery demand, mine production and supply availability, Mordor says these frequent price movements often affect producer margins and make investments and production planning more challenging.

Lithium carbonate is required to be industrial-grade, technical-grade or battery-grade, with the sources including brine, spodumene - or hard rock, clay and recycled material.

Established lithium carbonate suppliers include Albemarle Corporation, Ganfeng Lithium Group, Jiangxi Jiuling Lithium, Lithium Americas Corporation, Lithium Argentina, Pilbara Minerals, Rio Tinto, Shangdong Ruifu Lithium, Tianqi Lithium Corporation and SQM.

"As the lithium carbonate market expands, growing demand for lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems is creating opportunities across the battery supply chain. Increasing adoption of lithium iron phosphate battery technology and investments in lithium extraction and refining are also supporting market growth," comments Mordor senior research manager Himanshu Vasisht.

By grade, battery-grade material accounted for 82% of the lithium carbonate market share in 2025 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 23.95% through 2031.

By source, brine supplied 65% of the market share in 2025, however, hard-rock spodumene is forecast to grow the fastest at a CAGR of 23% through 2031.

By application, lithium-ion batteries held 89% of the market share in 2025, yet energy storage systems are expected to lead growth with a 24% CAGR through 2031. Energy storage systems will likely consume 42% of global lithium carbonate stocks by 2035, up from 8% in 2020.

By geography, Asia-Pacific commanded 79% of the lithium carbonate market share in 2025, however, North America is anticipated to be the fastest-growing region, growing at a CAGR of 28% through 2031.