South African platinum group metal (PGM) mine production recovered strongly in the first half of this year, although much of the improvement reflects normalisation from the weather-disrupted first half of 2025, global precious metals and materials company Heraeus Precious Metals’ latest precious appraisal shows.

Heraeus points out that Statistics South Africa’s production index indicates that the country’s PGM mine supply was about 12% higher year-on-year in the first half of the year.

However, yield was only about 1.5% higher year-on-year, suggesting that output has largely returned to pre-disruption levels rather than moved onto a considerably higher trajectory.

Heraeus’ latest appraisal, which spotlights PGMs, posits that the monthly pattern reinforces this theory, with year-on-year production growth particularly strong in February and April, at 52.3% and 36.8%, respectively, compared with the months heavily affected by rainfall in 2025.

By contrast, output declined by 4.3% year-on-year in May and 8.4% in June.

PGM miner Valterra Platinum is cited as a clear example of the weather-related recovery.

In the first half of the year, the company’s ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, osmium, iridium, and platinum (6E) metal-in-concentrate (M&C) PGM production increased by 4% year-on-year to 1.52-million ounces; own-mined output rose by 9% to 1.01-million ounces and own-mined platinum production grew by 12% to 462 000 oz.

The improvement was concentrated at the company’s Amandelbult, where PGM production increased by 76% and platinum output by 74% to 138 000 oz following the flooding that severely disrupted mining in the first half of 2025.

By comparison, platinum production at Mogalakwena declined by 3%.

Valterra maintained its 2026 M&C guidance of 3-million to 3.4-million ounces, including 2.1-million to 2.3-million ounces from its own mines, and expects mined production to be weighted towards the second half.

Elsewhere, producer results point to more modest underlying growth Heraeus posits.

Impala Rustenburg produced 1.74-million ounces of 6E in the 12 months ending in June 30, 4% higher year-on-year, while Impala Platinum’s total group production was broadly flat at 3.50-million ounces of 6E.

Gross refined and saleable platinum production increased by 5% to 1.68-million ounces.

Northam’s own-operated production rose by 4.4% to a record 939 000 oz of platinum, palladium, rhodium and gold (4E) in the same period, exceeding guidance, with the ramp-up at Eland providing the strongest growth.

Sibanye-Stillwater has yet to report its production for the period, but its South African PGM supply increased by 2% year-on-year in the first quarter and its 2026 guidance remains unchanged at 1.65-million to 1.75-million ounces 4E, Heraeus points out. 

“The first-half recovery therefore points to South African platinum mine supply being modestly higher in 2026 than in 2025, rather than signalling the start of a sustained production growth cycle,” Heraeus cautions.

It explains that year-on-year comparisons should become less favourable during the second half without the weather-related base effect, while scheduled processing maintenance could make refined supply weaker than the mine-production trend suggests in the third quarter.

Heraeus predicts that beyond this year, incremental growth from the major PGM miners would likely come principally from existing projects and brownfield expansions, including Eland’s ramp-up, while mine depletion elsewhere would likely offset some of these additional ounces.

“Importantly, the South African recovery does not necessarily translate into higher global platinum mine supply. [Russia’s] Nornickel expects lower PGM output this year as lower-grade ore is processed.

“Consequently, modest growth in South Africa is likely to offset declines elsewhere rather than lift global mine supply materially, leaving global platinum production broadly flat in 2026 at 5.2-million ounces,” Heraeus stresses.