As the global economy shifts towards cleaner energy systems, electrification and digital technologies, more countries are competing for access to critical minerals.

Clean technologies will account for a larger share of critical mineral demand, including copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements, says UN Trade and Development (Unctad) in its June 2026 Global Trade Update.

Demand for lithium is projected to grow by more than 350% by 2040, while graphite demand could rise by more than 130%.

Trade in critical minerals has become central for development in an international context of strong industrial policy and geopolitical competition.

There is a risk of a fragmented system of overlapping agreements, rules and standards being created. Such a system could raise costs, complicate investment decisions and pressure developing countries to align with one partner over another.

However, a more coordinated approach would help keep critical mineral trade open, predictable and development-oriented, which would also support a faster and more affordable energy transition.

Governments are responding as demand rises for minerals that are essential to electric vehicles, battery storage, renewable-energy technologies, semiconductors and data centres.

As demand rises and supply risks grow, governments are increasingly using trade policy to secure critical minerals, build domestic extraction and processing capacity and strengthen their position in global value chains.

Since 2020, nearly 100 export-related measures have been introduced on critical minerals. These include licensing requirements, export taxes and export bans. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), China and Indonesia have been among the most active users of such measures.

However, a challenge is where supply is located, who controls processing and where economic value is captured.

Critical mineral supply chains remain highly concentrated. In 2025, the DRC accounted for 74% of global cobalt mine production, while China produced 78% of the world’s natural graphite. Australia, Chile and China together produced more than 70% of the world’s lithium, Unctad illustrates.

The concentration is even greater in refining and processing, where much of the value is created. China plays a dominant role in refining several critical minerals, while Indonesia accounts for 43% of global nickel refining capacity.

The challenge for many mineral-rich developing countries is that they continue to export raw materials while higher-value processing and manufacturing take place elsewhere, Unctad points out.

Export measures on critical minerals have surged since 2020. For mineral-producing countries, these policies can support domestic processing, revenue generation and job creation.

For major importers, the priority is often to diversify supply, reduce dependency and build more resilient supply chains.

“This is why critical minerals are no longer simply a commodity story. They are becoming a trade, investment and industrial development story due to the key role they play in a variety of downstream high-technology sectors,” it says.

However, there has been a rapid rise in international critical mineral partnerships since 2022. Unctad identified 73 international agreements and partnership instruments, with 58 signed after 2022.

These agreements increasingly cover the full value chain, from exploration and extraction to processing, refining, manufacturing and recycling.

For developing countries, this can create new opportunities to attract investment, develop industrial capacity and move up the value chain. However, many agreements still focus heavily on extraction.

“Mineral-rich developing countries need to strengthen local processing and value addition, notably through technology transfer and skills development, to avoid remaining locked into low-value roles in these global value chains,” Unctad says.