Aluminium stocks on the London Metal Exchange have slumped to their lowest this century as supply constraints in the war-hit Middle East leave consumers drawing down inventories to secure metal.

Data from the bourse showed total aluminium stocks in LME warehouses had dropped to 271 275 metric tons on July 24. That is the lowest total in records going back to January 1998 and equivalent to less than a day's worth of global aluminium consumption.

"The aluminium market is so much larger today than it was 25 or so years ago, so LME stocks relative to the market size are very, very low today," said Duncan Hobbs, research director at Concord Resources.

On-warrant LME aluminium stocks — those not already earmarked for delivery out of the system — stood at 245 350 tons on July 24, the lowest since April 2025.

The vast majority of what little inventory is available is Russian aluminium, based on recent LME monthly stock origin reports. Some traders have been reluctant to touch Russian material even though metal produced before April 13, 2024, remains eligible for trading.

The Gulf, meanwhile, accounts for about 9% of primary aluminium production capacity, but its two biggest smelters were targeted by Iranian attacks in late March.

With projected aluminium surpluses in 2027 and 2028, the market is "maybe too complacent about supply risks", Hobbs said, noting continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz that is making it difficult for Gulf smelters to bring in raw materials and export their metal.

The previous low for LME aluminium inventories was 271 450 tons in August 2022 in the aftermath of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which prompted the LME to start restricting deliveries of Russian aluminium into its warehouses.

In top metals consumer China, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium stocks have been declining since mid-June but still stand at a relatively healthy 455 092 tons.

Benchmark three-month aluminium on the LME was trading 0.3% up at $3 170 a ton by 0830 GMT.