Precious metals and technology company Heraeus Precious Metals says gold has remained under pressure as continued tensions in the Middle East push oil prices higher.

In its latest ‘Precious Appraisal’, Heraeus notes that the gold price has remained well below its recently broken $4 250/oz support, while the dollar has strengthened and Brent crude has stayed comfortably above $100/bl.

The company says there is still no resolution in sight to the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, although Middle Eastern oil supply has proved more resilient than initially feared.

It notes that JPMorgan estimated in late September that crude exports had recovered to 98% of pre-war levels, while Shell executives said last week that regional oil flows were above 80%.

The appraisal notes that refined-product supply remains considerably tighter, however, with JPMorgan estimating diesel and gasoline flows at only 58% of pre-war levels as damage and shutdowns at Middle Eastern refineries continue to constrain processing capacity.

Meanwhile, Heraeus reports that the current macroeconomic environment and weaker sentiment continue to weigh on the price of silver. The silver price has tested support just below $60/oz and remains beneath its 50-day moving average near $64/oz, maintaining the decline from its late-August rebound.

A sustained break below $60/oz would leave the July lows just below $55/oz as the next significant area of support. Silver is also more exposed than gold to the growth implications of high energy costs, leaving it vulnerable if elevated oil prices and borrowing costs begin to weigh more heavily on industrial activity.

PLATINUM

Heraeus reports that underground development has restarted at JSE-listed Wesizwe Platinum’s Bakubung platinum mine, in South Africa, although a return to platinum group metal (PGM) production remains some way off.

Wesizwe resumed underground infrastructure development and blasting on September 23 following the completion of its restructuring process.

The company is targeting a single-stage ramp-up to 3.5-million tonnes a year, with underground development and an optimisation study prioritised this year.

However, Heraeus notes that Wesizwe has now placed the concentrator, which has faced repeated commissioning problems since 2024, on care and maintenance until underground stoping can provide sufficient sustainable ore feed, with the timing of recommissioning dependent on development progress and the outcome of the study.

Heraeus says the September restart, therefore, represents progress towards bringing Bakubung into sustained operation rather than an immediate addition to South African PGM mine supply.

The report notes that Bakubung could produce about 130 000 oz/y of platinum at full production, which would account for about 3.5% of the about 3.6-million ounces of platinum currently mined in South Africa a year.

The report notes that platinum prices remain under pressure.

Platinum remained below $1 700/oz after failing to sustain its September rally towards $1 900/oz. The price is now trading towards the top of the June-July range that included its year-to-date lows of about $1 520/oz, which also provides the next significant level of technical support.

Additionally, the report notes that Zimbabwe's State-owned Mutapa Platinum has secured funds to restart development of the Darwendale PGM project, which has stalled repeatedly since its launch in 2014.

The $100-million debt facility reached financial close at the end of September. Darwendale contains an estimated 44-million ounces of PGM resources and is being redeveloped in phases to reduce its initial capital requirement, beginning with an openpit.

Mutapa is targeting first production in about 12 months, by late 2027, while the wider development is expected to require about $500-million. The investment adds to significant PGM capital deployment in Zimbabwe, which produces about 10%, or about 500 000 oz, of primary platinum supply.

Heraeus says Tharisa's Karo project – also in Zimbabwe – has a development cost of about $545-million and recently secured a $300-million bond, with first ore to the mill expected in the fourth quarter of 2027, while Mimosa is considering an estimated $130-million investment in its North Hill life extension project.

The company says that both Darwendale and Karo are starting with openpit mining, typically a quicker route to first production than an underground development, although production of most of the additional ounces remains several years away.

It notes that Karo and Darwendale combined could add about 140 000 oz/y of platinum to Zimbabwean supply, representing about 28% of the current total, although there is potential for Darwendale to transition to underground mining, potentially lifting its contribution significantly.

PALLADIUM, RHODIUM, RUTHENIUM, IRIDIUM

Further, Heraeus notes that palladium's price action remains the weakest across the precious metals complex, having broken below, and then tentatively regaining support to about, $1 135/oz.

The appraisal says the sequence of lower highs and lower lows leaves the palladium trend firmly negative. It explains that elevated real yields are weighing on precious metals generally, while Brent crude at above $100/bl adds a further risk for platinum and palladium through its potential impact on economic growth and automotive demand.

Additionally, Heraeus says the prices of iridium and ruthenium rose slightly last week while the price of rhodium remained flat.