The South African division of the world’s largest container shipping company, Maersk Line (itself part of the AP Moller-Maersk group), believes that South African exports will grow at about 4% this year and that imports will also rise.

The company has a market share in Southern Africa’s container traffic of 30% to 35%, amounting to more than 350 000 forty-foot-equivalent units last year, if Safmarine (also part of the AP Moller-Maersk group) is included. The exports handled are overwhelmingly mining ores, metals and agricultural and fishery products.

“Maersk only does containers. Most things can go in containers,” highlights Maersk Southern Africa trade and marketing manager Matthew Conroy. “Chrome ore and scrap metal are big exports. Agricultural products, especially fruit, and fish are also big. We put agricultural produce and fish in reefers (refrigerated containers).”
Last year, South African exports grew at between 3% and 4%. But it was very much a tale of two halves – during the first semester, the country’s exports rose by 8% to 9%, but, during the second semester, the growth turned slightly negative. This downturn was the result of less demand in China and strikes in the South African mining sector. “The downturn in the second half of last year was definitely mostly in mining products, owing to the lack of production in the mining sector,” he explains. “Everything else remained relatively stable.”
Things are, however, looking up. “Since December, volume has started to come back,” he reports. “Chrome exports have picked up. If we have more labour stability in mining, there will definitely be growth this year. South Africa is very much linked to how economies in the rest of the world are doing. The US and China are doing a little better. As a lot of the commodity exports go to China, Chinese growth is important to us. With China’s new focus on domestic growth and not exports, that will definitely help us with our exports. I forecast that export growth this year will be a little stronger than last year.”
The pattern with imports is similar. During the first half of 2012, they grew by some 8% but that figure fell to 0% during the second half. In this case, the cause was the weak rand exchange rate, which drove up the cost of imported goods. The growth figure for the year as a whole was 4%. Most of the goods imported into South Africa through ocean containers are finished products, including retail goods, automotive components and parts and food. But again, since December, growth has returned to the market.
“With imports, with the positive start we’ve seen so far, I’m reasonably confident that we’re heading in the right direction, but there is the concern that people may have less money in their pockets,” says Conroy. “I would say that import growth this year will be similar to last year – about 4%. One of the key things is the rate of exchange. If the rand strengthens even a little, it will make imports cheaper.”
The Maersk Line operates more than 600 ships. “We have about seven main services with a weekly call in Southern African ports, so at least 400 ships called in last year,” he states. “The biggest ships that we can use in Southern African ports are about 6 500 twenty-foot-equiva- lent unit (TEU) vessels, but it depends on their configuration.” Thus, in West Africa, where the ports are shallow, the group uses specially designed ships that can take more containers with less draught. On the other hand, starting in the middle of this year, the group will begin taking delivery of what will be the biggest container ships in the world – the 18 000 TEU capacity, 400 m long, 59 m wide and 73 m high Triple E-class.