Australian multinational mining and metals company BHP’s growing exposure to copper is expected to provide an increasingly important source of growth as long-term iron-ore prices come under pressure, BMI says in a new report.

BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, highlights that the mining major’s diversified portfolio, strong balance sheet and low-cost asset base leave it well positioned to withstand weaker commodity prices while continuing to invest in future-facing commodities.

BMI forecasts copper prices to rise from an average of $12 700/t this year to $17 000/t by 2035, while iron-ore prices are expected to decline from $99/t to $78/t over the same period.

BHP reported a strong financial performance for the financial year ended June 30, with underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) having increased by 27% year-on-year to $32.9-billion.

Its underlying attributable profit rose by 30% to $13.2-billion, while net operating cash flow increased by 17% to $21.8-billion.

“BHP’s financial position is strong, with a solid balance sheet and substantial cash reserves. This financial robustness empowers the company to invest in new ventures, capitalise on growth prospects and manage economic downturns more effectively than its competitors,” BMI highlights.

On copper growth, the report highlights that BHP has produced about two-million tonnes of copper across its operations during the financial year ended June 30.

The company’s Escondida copper mine, located in Chile, produced about 1.2-million tonnes, while production from Copper South Australia has increased by 2% to 321 000 t.

“Escondida has significant untapped resource potential and BHP is progressing studies into potentially replacing the Los Colorados concentrator.

“The company is also looking at different leaching technologies that could help it extract more copper and that have the potential to lower water and energy consumption,” BMI notes.

Despite the weaker long-term price outlook, iron-ore remains one of BHP’s major competitive strengths, with BMI pointing out that Western Australia Iron Ore achieved record production and shipments in the 2026 financial year, with BHP’s share of production reaching 257-million tonnes.

The report also notes that BHP is targeting production of more than 305-million tonnes a year of iron-ore over the medium term through the ramp-up of South Flank, located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia; port and rail debottlenecking, autonomous haulage; and further productivity improvements.

The company is also studying options to increase its yearly production towards 330-million tonnes.

Moreover, the BMI report states that BHP’s scale and balance sheet strength provide an advantage during commodity downturns, allowing it to access debt and equity funding more readily when compared with junior mining companies. This could also allow the company to potentially acquire assets when weaker miners come under financial pressure.

BMI adds that BHP’s relatively low production costs and increasing use of automation could further improve competitiveness while helping to address wage inflation and skilled-labour shortages.

BHP is using AI, machine learning and other digital technologies to improve productivity and resource recovery and, at Escondida, AI recommendations and machine-learning platforms are being used to optimise flotation operations and increase copper recovery, the BMI report highlights.

“[The] push towards automation will enable productivity gains, while alleviating the threats of wage inflation and shortage of skilled labour in Australia,” BMI says.