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BHP needs to bid about £32 a share for Anglo, JPMorgan says

17th May 2024

By: Reuters

  

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LONDON - BHP Group would need to boost its latest offer around 30% to reflect fair value for Anglo American and its key copper assets, JPMorgan analysts said in a note.

They raised their price target for London-listed Anglo to £27.75 a share after reexamining the value of its copper assets, and said the discount for the shares to the implied value of BHP's offer was at its greatest level, implying the market sees a deal as unlikely.

Anglo has rejected two bid proposals from BHP. Under UK takeover rules BHP must make a firm offer by May 22, or walk away.

"Anglo’s shares now trade at the greatest discount (-13.6%) to the implied value of BHP’s offer, implying that the market assigns a low probability to BHP’s ability to raise its offer and achieve an agreed deal," JP Morgan analysts said.

"In a 20% (change of control) scenario, we estimate Anglo American plc at ~£32 a share (~$50-billion), or Anglo plc Rump (the entity BHP is seeking to acquire) at $39-billion (£24.79), ~30% higher than the value of BHP’s current offer."

The analysts increased their December 2025 fair value for Anglo Copper by 25% to $27-billion (£17.47 a share) and increased their Anglo price target to £27.75 a share from £26  previously. That factored in their copper reassessment, as well as $4-billion lower capital spending (capex) forecast over 2025 due to the cessation of development capex at the Woodsmith crop nutrient project.

On Monday, Anglo rejected an improved £34-billion ($43-billion) proposal from BHP, saying BHP "continues to significantly undervalue" its business. BHP has proposed Anglo divest its South African platinum and iron ore assets as a pre-condition to an offer for the rest of the company.

Anglo and BHP did not immediately comment on the report.

Edited by Reuters

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