TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – The ongoing recovery in the US that is forecast to pick up steam during this year, is expected to drive Quebec's exports to grow by 8% in 2013 and a further 6% in 2014, Export Development Canada's (EDC's) Global Export Forecast found.

EDC chief economist Peter Hall on Wednesday, in Montreal, said the US bought about two-thirds of all Quebec exports, and with the country’s recovery gaining momentum through the year, the province was looking at a solid export increase after a few years of low export growth.

"Also on the plus side are production increases in the mining industry and higher aerospace sales. All told, Quebec's export sales are heading north, with help from our southern neighbours,” Hall said.

Hall's forecast for the US economy was predicated upon the view that there was significant private sector momentum despite the fiscal drag. The housing market had finally returned to balance as the excesses of the last cycle had been soaked up over the past few years and prices had now firmed, and housing starts were soaring.

"US consumers are also spending, particularly on larger goods, and businesses, who are now running out of productive capacity, are beginning to spend the mountain of cash that has built up," Hall said.

The industrial goods sector, which included ores, minerals and metals exports, accounted for about 38% of the province's exports, and EDC's forecast for this sector called for export growth of 7% in 2013 and 2% in 2014.

"Despite regulatory headwinds in the form of changes to the Quebec mining regime, the metals and mining industry remains a key contributor to Quebec's overall export performance. Exports are poised to rebound following a disappointing 2012 that was caused, in part, by sluggish prices. Looking forward, both demand and prices will be up in 2013,” Hall noted.

He added the transportation sector was another important contributor to Quebec's export picture, contributing about 12% of the province's export total. EDC's forecast predicted the sector would grow by 13% this year and 16% in 2014.

Quebec's exports to emerging markets accounted for 13% of the province's total in 2012, up from 9% in 2008. China was the second-largest export destination (after the US), accounting for 4% of Quebec's exports. Industrial goods make up a large share of exports to emerging markets.

Nationally, Canadian merchandise exports were forecast to rise 8.6% in 2013 and 5% in 2014, while economic growth was expected to rise 2.2% this year and 1.9% next year. EDC forecast global growth of 3.6% in 2013 and 4.2% in 2014.