Northern Dynasty, the company behind the controversial Pebble copper project, in Alaska, has urged politicians, environmental activists and the public to pay attention to concerns raised by the mining industry about a looming copper supply gap.

Commenting on a recent report by S&P Global, entitled 'The Future of Copper: Will the looming supply gap short-circuit the energy transition?', Northern Dynasty CEO Ron Thiessen said the conclusions were consistent with comments and concerns previously raised by the company and other key mining industry companies and organisations.

“It is clear to us that the US, and frankly the world, are not adequately planning to deliver the raw materials that are necessary to fuel policy initiatives. . . Expected copper supply cannot meet copper demand, even if permitting and construction could be accelerated. Politicians, environmental activists and the general public should pay attention to the stark conclusions raised in this report,” noted Thiessen.

The independent report and a corresponding webinar, which are both available on the S&P website, was authored in response to the growing concern expressed by global authorities and governments that there are insufficient copper resources to support the global goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.

In its report, S&P concludes that “unless massive new supply [of copper] comes on line in a timely way, the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 will be short-circuited and remain out of reach” – a sentiment that Northern Dynasty shares.

The S&P report further states that the demand for copper, which is essential for electrification, is forecast to double from the current 25-million metric tons a year to nearly 50-million metric tons a year by 2035 and more still by 2050.

In its report, S&P evaluates two potential scenarios: the “Rocky Road Scenario” is predicated on flat capacity use and recycling rates, resulting in peak supply of 39-million metric tons a year; and the “High Ambition Scenario”, which assumes that production increases because of mined output and capacity use, resulting in peak supply of 47.3-million metric tons a year. In both scenarios, the supply of copper is insufficient to meet the expected demand.

The S&P report warns that, “[i]n the 21st century, copper scarcity may emerge as a key destabilising threat to international security. Projected annual shortfalls will place unprecedented strain on supply chains. The challenges this poses are reminiscent of the 20th-century scramble for oil but may be accentuated by an even higher geographic concentration for copper resources and the downstream industry to refine it into products.”

Similar to other recent prognostications, S&P makes the argument that the world will need to develop many large new copper mines – about three tier-one mines a year for the next 29 years – to have enough new copper to achieve the lofty goals of net-zero carbon emissions.

‘MISGUIDED ACTIVISTS’
“Pebble is the largest undeveloped copper deposit in the world and the proposed Pebble mine needs to be part of this solution, instead of being portrayed as part of the problem by misguided environmental activists who do not have a credible plan for reaching net-zero,” Thiessen added.

The final environmental impact statement for the Pebble project, published in 2020, describes a modern, environmentally-sound mine that can co-exist with clean water and healthy fisheries, Northern Dynasty said. The company is appealing a negative record of decision from the US Army Corps of Engineers.

In a February 28 report titled 'Economic Contribution Assessment of the Proposed Pebble Project to the US national and state economies', the proposed Pebble mine was shown to be capable of supporting thousands of high-paying jobs and billions of dollars of economic activity, much of which would be focused on south-west Alaska, one of the most economically disadvantaged regions in the US.

“It would also help the US reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers of copper and other metals,” Theissen said.