The South African truck market is expected to grow by 4.93% in 2014, says UD Trucks Southern Africa (UDTSA) corporate planning and marketing GM Rory Schulz.
He notes that truck sales reached 30 939 units in 2013, compared with 27 841 units in 2012 – an increase of 11.12%, and far more than the modest 3% Schulz predicted at the beginning of 2013.
Growth of almost 5% should push the local truck market to 32 550 units in 2014. Challenges
Schulz says the for 2014, possibly affecting truck sales in the local market, will include the “huge upside risk” to inflation and the continued weakening of the rand against major currencies. This could, in turn, see truck prices move upwards at a rate higher than inflation.
Uncertainty around the national elections could also influence investor confidence, having a ripple effect on the rand, adds UDTSA MD Jacques Carelse.
However, it should be a less turbulent year on the labour front, with two multiyear wage deals signed in the automotive sector last year, following a crippling seven-week strike.
Schulz expects the medium commercial vehicle (MCV) market to grow 4.96%, to 12 200 units, in 2014, with the heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) segment to grow 5.57%, to 5 800 units.

Sales of extra-heavy commer- cial vehicles (XHCVs) should expand by 4.98% in 2014, to 13 500 units.
Bus sales should see a slow uptick this year, at 0.38%, to 1 050 units.
The truck market last year outperformed an economy that showed stagnant export growth, strong rand depreciation, increased supply-side inflation and sluggish gross domestic product growth, notes Carelse.

However, some of these conditions were evident in the sales of MCVs, which jumped 14.66% in 2013, compared with 2012. Normally, MCV sales grow the most during “economic tough times”, says Carelse, as fleet owners downsize from heavier trucks in an attempt to cut costs.
The HCV market was up 9.94%, the XHCV market was up 10.39%, with the bus market declining 7.76%.
Fast-moving consumer goods provided most of the impetus in 2013, says Carelse, adding 55.01% to 2013 growth. This segment saw a definite buy-down into smaller trucks.
Construction added 39.05% to the growth seen, with demanding long-haul contributing 29.82%, and waste and public utilities another 14.78%.
Sectors that slowed down significantly were the expensive specialised vehicle segment, interregional haul and public transport.
Number Four
UDTSA ended 2013 at number four in the local truck market, selling 3 079 units, up from 2 992 units in 2012.
The local arm of the Japanese manufacturer found it particularly tough going in the MCV market, where its 1990s product struggled to remain relevant.

However, assures Schulz, a replacement is on its way in 2018, while a completely new brand, still within the UD stable, but without the UD badge, will also start competing in the local MCV market from late 2014, or early 2015.
The new Quester, developed especially for the heavy truck segment in emerging markets, will also launch in South Africa in 2014.

The current Quon heavy truck will, however, remain in place.

Quester assembly will start in South Africa in 2015 at UDTSA’s Rosslyn plant, says Carelse.