Surging trade uncertainties about ten times previous peaks – IMF
Concerns about global trade have reached nearly ten times the peaks seen in previous decades and could shave about 0.75 percentage point off world economic growth this year, according to data compiled by the International Monetary Fund.
The Americas and Asia-Pacific are most affected by concerns about the US-China trade war, while Africa is least affected, the IMF said Monday in a new index aimed at quantifying trade uncertainty.
The index is based on reports from the Economist Intelligence Unit dating back to 1996 and borrows from methodology used in the IMF’s own World Uncertainty Index. To calculate the new gauge, IMF researchers counted how often the word “uncertainty” appears in the EIU reports near terms such as “tariffs,” “protectionism” or “trade.“
Following 20 years of stability, the World Trade Uncertainty index started to climb around the third quarter of last year, coinciding with tariff action by the US and China, according to the IMF. After a brief respite the index rocketed up in the first quarter of 2019, reflecting a substantial increase of US tariffs on Chinese imports on March 1, the IMF said.
While trade uncertainty has generally been rising across the globe, the increase was much higher for advanced economies. It remained “moderately low” in the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa, according to the IMF.
Comments
Press Office
Announcements
What's On
Subscribe to improve your user experience...
Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):
Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):
All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors
including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.
Already a subscriber?
Forgotten your password?
Receive weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine (print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
➕
Recieve daily email newsletters
➕
Access to full search results
➕
Access archive of magazine back copies
➕
Access to Projects in Progress
➕
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA
R4500 (equivalent of R375 a month)
SUBSCRIBEAll benefits from Option 1
➕
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports on various industrial and mining sectors, in PDF format, including on:
Electricity
➕
Water
➕
Energy Transition
➕
Hydrogen
➕
Roads, Rail and Ports
➕
Coal
➕
Gold
➕
Platinum
➕
Battery Metals
➕
etc.
Receive all benefits from Option 1 or Option 2 delivered to numerous people at your company
➕
Multiple User names and Passwords for simultaneous log-ins
➕
Intranet integration access to all in your organisation