The International Data Corporation (IDC) has raised its near-term outlook for the global smartphone market, following back-to-back quarters of growth.

Shipments of smartphones are forecast to increase 7.7% year-on-year to 1.38-billion units this year, a growth trend that is set to continue into 2022, with 3.8% year-on-year growth to 1.43-billion, the IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker notes.

Low single-digit growth will continue to 2025, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7%.

“Although the 7.7% growth will feel like an impressive market turnaround, we must keep in mind that we are rebounding from one of the most challenging years on record,” says IDC Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers research manager Anthony Scarsella.

However, he notes that 2021 will represent the biggest year-on-year growth the market has witnessed since 2015, as the shift towards fifth-generation (5G) technology across all price tiers continues to accelerate.

Markets worldwide continue to migrate toward 5G where networks are deployed, with 5G shipments expected to grow nearly 130% this year.

While almost all regions outside China will see triple-digit growth by the end of this year, China will lead the way in terms of market share, with nearly 50% of the share of 5G shipments in 2021, followed by the US, with a 16% share.

Other significant markets such as Western Europe and Asia Pacific, excluding China and Japan, will collectively account for a 23.1% share of the worldwide 5G market by the end of the year.

“There continues to be a strong supply-side push toward 5G and price points continue to drop as a result,” adds IDC Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers programme VP Ryan Reith.

Within emerging markets, there is strong demand for midrange and low-end fourth-generation phones following the Covid-19 pandemic-related slowdown in 2020.

“Smartphones are seeing competition for consumer spending from adjacent markets like personal computers (PCs), tablets, televisions and smart home devices, yet that has not slowed the market’s path to recovery,” he comments.