South African mining companies’ peace accord with unions last week is unlikely to prevent strikes that have led to stalled output, mass firings and deadly violence in recent months, say analysts at Eurasia Group and Peel Hunt.

The government-led deal, including commitments by workers to keep industrial action within the law, was not signed by the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU), the biggest labour group at the three largest platinum mines. AMCU is battling for dominance with the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM).

“Even if AMCU signs on later, the pact does little to resolve the turf war between rival unions or moderate wage demands, and labour unrest remains likely during upcoming negotiations over recognition and wages,” says Mark Rosenberg, an Africa analyst at Eurasia Group.

The South African government has stepped up efforts to quell disruption, bringing in Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe to broker talks, after an earlier agreement led by Mines Minister Susan Shabangu between companies and unions, including AMCU, failed to halt the strikes. Three workers also died in the violence in May, after Shabangu had brokered the previous accord in February and March.

“Government will act decisively to enforce the rule of law, maintain peace during strikes and other protests relating to labour disputes, and ensure protection of life, property and the advancement of the rights of all,” a spokesperson said last week in a statement handed to reporters in Pretoria.

The unions that signed the accord agreed to avoid wildcat strikes and respect property rights, while companies said they would deal impartially with their workers’ representatives.

AMCU said it would consult with members before signing.

“We’ll be able to make a decision after we meet with our members,” said AMCU treasurer Jimmy Gama.

“They have nothing against the framework,” Motlanthe told reporters. “It is theirs as much as it is ours. They had no preconditions. Investors are not interested in this document; they’re interested in a stable mining industry.”

AMCU raised objections on the dismissal of about 1 000 of its members at Glencore Xstrata’s chrome mines, and job losses at the Vaal River operations of AngloGold Ashanti this year, said Lesiba Seshoka, a spokesperson for the rival NUM, who attended the talks between the unions and mining companies.

Disputes have flared as unions seek a more than doubling of some workers’ wages at the same time that falling precious metal prices and higher energy costs have squeezed producers’ margins.

“There’s a high probability we’re going to see strikes across the mining sector simply because the guys want money and the opera- tors can’t afford to give it,” says Maurice Mason, a London-based mining analyst at Peel Hunt.

More than half of gold and platinum opera- tions are losing money, according Chamber of Mines CEO Bheki Sibiya.

“Failure is not an option, as this will accele- rate the creeping destruction of one of South Africa’s most important industries and inhibit the investment support that the country so urgently needs.”