South America is increasingly becoming one of the most strategically important mining regions for the future stability of global copper and lithium supply. Chile, Peru and Argentina sit at the centre of two minerals that are critical to the global economy: copper, which underpins electrification and infrastructure development; and lithium, which remains essential for energy storage and battery supply chains, reports minerals processing equipment supplier Multotec Chile and Peru GM Mario Saavedra.

Recent projections presented during the early April 2025-held mining forum CESCO Week 2025 indicate that South America could account for between 34% and 48% of global copper supply over the coming decades.

At the same time, he says Argentina, Chile and Bolivia continue consolidating their position within the world’s lithium triangle, which contains some of the biggest lithium brine resources globally.

Across Chile, Peru and Argen-tina, there are currently 42 identified copper projects representing about $138-billion in projected investment and more than six-million additional tonnes of copper production potential, notes Saavedra.

However, he says that even under these aggressive investment scenarios, the market still faces a projected structural copper deficit of between 16.8-million tonnes and 19.9-million tonnes by 2050.

“The challenge is no longer discovering mineral resources but converting those resources into stable production quickly enough to meet accelerating global demand,” says Saavedra.

One of the most significant structural shifts taking place in South America is not only the volume of copper being produced, but how that production is evolving, he adds.

According to Chilean copper commission Cochilco’s data, total copper production in South America increased by 10.4% over the past decade; however, this growth has been driven almost entirely by copper concentrates, whose exports increased by 43.6% during the same period.

At the same time, regional refined copper production, cathodes produced by solvent extraction and electrowinning (SXEW), and smelting output declined by 28.5%. Chile reflects this transition even more sharply, with SXEW production declining by 31.2%, copper smelting production falling by 28%, and total copper production remaining largely stagnant since 2018, says Saavedra.

This transition, he adds, is strategically important because it highlights how the region is becoming increasingly dependent on concentrator plants and more complex mineral processing routes to sustain production.

“Declining ore grades, ageing assets, increasing ore hardness, water restrictions, and greater mineral complexity are reshaping operational priorities across South America,” says Saavedra.

A similar pattern is emerging in lithium production. While long-term lithium demand projections remain strong, new projects across South America continue facing growing pressure related to water use, permitting timelines, infrastructure readiness, energy availability and social acceptance, he points out.

“The industry is entering a phase where operational execution and processing efficiency are becoming just as important as resource scale,” says Saavedra.

The 2036 Turning Point

Projections presented during CESCO Week 2025 identify a critical inflection point for the mining industry. South American copper supply is projected to peak around 2036 at about 16-million to 17-million tonnes before entering a gradual long-term decline toward 2050, says Saavedra.

Globally, copper supply is expected to follow a similar trajectory, reaching a projected peak of about 35-million to 36-million tonnes in about 2036, before declining thereafter.

This timing is significant because global demand continues accelerating simultaneously, he states. The electrification of transport, expansion of renewable-energy infrastructure, grid modernisation, AI-driven data centre growth and battery manufacturing are all increasing long-term demand for both copper and lithium.

The mining sector is effectively entering a decade where execution capability will become more important than resource declarations alone.

The Real Bottleneck: Execution

While the mining industry often discusses future supply in terms of new discoveries and project pipelines, the biggest challenge facing South America may not be geology, but execution, says Saavedra.

Permitting timelines, infrastructure constraints, desalination requirements, power availability, water management, political uncertainty, declining recoveries and operational instability are increasingly defining project economics across the region, he explains.

“This is where operational performance becomes strategic. Recoveries, classification efficiency, screening performance, sampling accuracy, water recovery and plant stability are no longer secondary operational indicators. They directly influence whether projects achieve production targets, operational stability, and long-term economic viability,” says Saavedra.