Mining production increased by 0.1% year-on-year in January, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) says.

The largest positive contributors were manganese ore (19.6% and contributing 1.9 percentage points); gold (7.0% and contributing 0.8 of a percentage point); and diamonds (16.3% and contributing 0.8 of a percentage point).

Iron-ore (-13.4% and contributing -1.5 percentage points) was a significant negative contributor.

Seasonally adjusted mining production increased by 5.4% in January compared with December 2021.

This followed month-on-month changes of -5.5% in December 2021 and -3.3% in November 2021.

Seasonally adjusted mining production decreased by 4.9% in the three months ended January, compared with the previous three months.

The largest contributors were iron-ore (-10.4% and contributing -1.1 percentage points); manganese ore (-11.1% and contributing -1.1 percentage points); gold (-5.9% and contributing -0.8 of a percentage point); and coal (-3.1% and contributing -0.8 of a percentage point).

MINERAL SALES

After recording 18 months of positive year-on-year growth, South African mineral sales at current prices pulled back in January, decreasing by 8.2%.

The largest negative contributors were gold (-48.4% and contributing -10.0 percentage points); platinum group metals (-15.1% and contributing -5.3 percentage points) and iron-ore (-27.0% and contributing -4.5 percentage points).

Coal (52.3% and contributing 7.3 percentage points) and manganese ore (67.3% and contributing 2.3 percentage points) were significant positive contributors.

Seasonally adjusted mineral sales at current prices increased by 2.1% in January compared with December.

This followed month-on-month changes of -10.7% in December 2021 and 7.4% in November 2021.

In the three months ended January, the seasonally adjusted value of mineral sales at current prices was 0.4% lower compared with the previous three months.

Commenting on the statistics, Nedbank Group Economic Unit says the mining sector activity was expected to level off from 2021's highs as commodity prices eased towards the end of the year.

However, it notes that the uncertainty created by the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine sent commodity prices skyrocketing again.

“Mining companies will benefit from the elevated prices as long as the markets are unsettled by the war. If the rand were to come under renewed and sustained pressure from a spike in risk aversion caused by some combination of the war and tighter US monetary policy, it would provide an additional boost to the sector's profitability.

“Downside risks emanate from a general slowdown in the global economic recovery, persistent load-shedding and potential labour disputes,” the unit indicates.