The electricity data for April and May reflect a system that is operationally more stable, yet structurally under strain, industry organisation the Minerals Council South Africa highlights.

State-owned Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) improved in May, rising to nearly 66% compared with 59.9% in April.

This improvement coincided with the onset of winter temperatures, as the first two weeks of May were particularly cold, driving higher electricity demand as households increased heating appliance use.

Peak demand during May reached 28 415 MW, closely matched by Eskom’s dispatchable generation capacity of 28 373 MW.

Open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs), which use diesel, were deployed strategically to bridge this narrow gap during periods of elevated demand.

On average, OCGTs generated 112 MW/h during the month, up from 93 MW/h in April, with peak output reaching 1 884 MW.

Eskom reported diesel expenditure of R559.2-million over April and May, significantly lower than the R3.43-billion spent over the same period last year.

Overall, the system remained stable, with no loadshedding recorded, the council points out.

Eskom maintains confidence that it will meet demand and avoid supply shortages throughout the winter season.

Citing data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) for April, the council highlights a continued decline in electricity production in South Africa.

Seasonally adjusted (headline) real electricity generation fell by 8.7% year-on-year in April, a sustained contraction in yearly terms over recent months.

On a month-on-month basis, production declined by a further 1.7%.

Despite the absence of loadshedding, both electricity production and consumption remain on a downward trend, the council stresses.

It also lauds the scale of policy reform that is currently under way, with Eskom repositioning itself to operate within a new electricity market framework.

“This is occurring alongside mounting pressure on existing industrial customers, many of whom face significant financial strain and may be unable to continue operating in the absence of electricity tariff relief,” the council avers.

Against this backdrop, several key policy and regulatory processes are currently progressing through the National Energy Regulator of South Africa’s public consultation framework, including Eskom’s proposed amendments to the negotiated pricing agreements for ferrochrome smelters operated by Samancor Chrome and the Glencore-Merafe

chrome venture; draft regulations on the mandatory provision of energy data; draft electricity trading rules; market code and rules; the transitional generation pricing vesting contracts framework; and the wholesale pricing framework.

“Collectively, these processes reflect a comprehensive restructuring of both market design and pricing arrangements, with significant implications for generators, traders, and large industrial consumers,” the council says.

“The improvement in Eskom’s EAF and the absence of loadshedding, even as winter demand began to materialise, point to meaningful gains in generation performance and system management.

“This is further supported by reduced reliance on diesel relative to last year, despite the strategic use of OCGTs to manage tighter supply-demand conditions during peak periods,” the council points out.

However, it warns that these short-term operational improvements contrast against the continued decline in electricity production and consumption.

“The sustained year-on-year contraction, coupled with output levels well below pre-Covid benchmarks, suggests that weak underlying demand, likely reflecting subdued industrial activity in the economy, remains a defining feature of the electricity landscape.

“This will put pressure on Eskom’s revenue and does not support single-digit tariff increases in future,” the council predicts.