Sub-Saharan Africa will account for only 28-million, or 3%, of global fifth-generation (5G) technology connections by 2025, as existing technologies are capable of supporting current use cases and demand for mobile Internet connectivity.

While an increase in 5G activities will be seen from 2020, with South Africa leading the way, mass deployment and subsequent adoption of 5G in sub-Saharan Africa are still several years away, a new GSMA report, ‘5G in Sub-Saharan Africa: laying the foundations’, reveals.

Currently, a growing shift from basic voice services to datacentric services in the region will result in third-generation (3G) and fourth-generation (4G) connections surpassing the number of second-generation (2G) connections for the first time by the end of 2019, accounting for 54% of total mobile connections in sub-Saharan Africa.

Over the past five years, the GSMA survey shows that mobile operators have invested nearly $40-billion in capital expenditure, mostly for the deployment and expansion of 3G and 4G networks, which now cover 75% and 46% respectively of the region’s population.

Smartphone connections have doubled over the last three years, reaching 300-million in 2018, with another 400-million smartphones expected to be connected to mobile networks by 2025.

Further, demand for data underpins growth in enhanced connectivity services during the 2020s, including initial take-up of 5G, while video content will drive a fourfold increase in data consumption in sub-Saharan Africa by 2024.

“While two-thirds of respondents to the survey did not envisage commercial 5G services becoming available in their markets before 2025, the mobile ecosystem should lay the foundations now,” the GSMA notes.

The GSMA 5G Market Readiness Index indicates that some countries are moving quickly towards a state of readiness as 4G adoption approaches mass market and mobile operators progress with network modernisation initiatives.

“Ahead of 5G network launches, operators and network equipment vendors in the region need to make plans to prepare existing network infrastructure for 5G, adopt cost-effective infrastructure deployment solutions, and develop a framework to manage the complexity of operating multiple networks – namely 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G – simultaneously.

By 2025, there will be commercial 5G services in at least seven markets across sub-Saharan Africa, including Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa.

“That said, the time lag before large-scale 5G deployment could have positive implications for the region: it would allow the technology to mature and be fully tested in other markets,” the report adds.

This will allow economies of scale to be realised in the required equipment and devices, which could lead to lower costs for operators and consumers.

The next-generation network deployments and the first phases of 5G roll-outs will require significant capital investment, with mobile operators in the region expected to invest about $60-billion in their networks between 2018 and 2025.

A fifth of this will be on 5G infrastructure.