Following a review of nine previous turnaround plans, State-owned national carrier South African Airways (SAA) believes it has finally delivered an “all-encompassing strategy” to its shareholder – one that, if implemented with diligence, will place it on a sound financial and operational footing.

Without question, “implementation” has emerged as the watchword, given that none of the previous plans were followed through, despite containing a number of sensible proposals and common themes.

Aware of this weakness, Public Enterprises Minister Malusi Gigaba has already stressed that there can be no repeat, this time around, of SAA’s past failure to implement.

Likewise, acting chairperson Dudu Myeni has promised that the strategy will be followed up with a “comprehensive implementation plan aimed at ensuring successful delivery”.

But to reach a point where the plan can actually be implemented, it first requires adopting.

The Department of Public Enterprises (DPE) has promised to shepherd it through the various approval phases over the coming month, culminating in a Cabinet endorsement of the plan, probably in early May. A permanent CEO should also be appointed during the period.

However, prior to its formal endorsement, the strategy will be deliberated upon by the DPE and, even more crucially, by the National Treasury, which may be called upon to offer financial backing to the strategy.

In light of public resistance to extending yet more support beyond the R15-billion that has already been delivered over the past ten years, the plan’s credibility will rest heavily on its proposals for extracting efficiencies and cutting costs.

The National Treasury, in particular, is likely to demand that cost savings are delivered ahead of any request for the further financial aid.

Details have not yet been provided, but it is understood that the plan could well involve an overhaul of the airline’s current route plan. It is understood that, while most of SAA’s narrow-body fleet, which operates domestically and into Africa, is profitable, its wide-body fleet is not. For this reason, it is possible that SAA will seek to convince the National Treasury that it requires financial support to enable it to continue operating certain long-haul routes, particularly those which government believes to be economically strategic albeit unprofitable. Support could also be required to align the new route plan with a fit-for-purpose fleet.

More immediately, though, the focus is likely to be on cost savings and efficiencies, which could also involve a ‘right-sizing’ exercise. Government is unlikely to be comfortable with a plan that results in a major retrenchment programme. But it would be sympathetic to any restructuring that deals with what is considered to be a top-heavy management structure at the airline.

The restructuring will also not be confined to airline operations, with SAA’s other divisions, such as Air Chefs and SAA Technical, likely to come under close scrutiny.

In addition, the plan would seek to extract synergies in the relationship with South Africa’s other State-owned airlines, SA Express and Mango. It could even seek to leverage the State’s collective buying power through coordinated procurement efforts

. Much will also hinge, however, on the calibre of the new CEO, as well as the latitude that individual is given by the shareholder to deal decisively with the issues constraining the business.

Without such latitude, this latest turnaround plan will fly into the same implementation turbulence that confronted the nine that came before.