Goldman says commodities to benefit as central banks cut rates
Commodities will advance this year as central banks in the US and Europe move to reduce interest rates, helping to support industrial and consumer demand, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Raw materials may return 15% over 2024 as borrowing costs come down, manufacturing recovers, and geopolitical risks persist, analysts including Samantha Dart and Daan Struyven said in a March 24 note. Copper, aluminum, gold and oil products may climb, according to the bank, which also stressed the need for investors to be selective as gains wouldn’t be universal.
Commodities have made a modest advance in the first quarter, with crude strengthening, gold hitting a record, and copper topping $9 000 a ton. Policymakers at both the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have signaled their intention to reduce borrowing costs this year as inflation ebbs. In addition, China has flagged further support for its recovery.
“We find that US rate cuts in non-recessionary environments lead to higher commodity prices, with the biggest boost to metals (copper and gold in particular), followed by crude oil,” the analysts said. “Importantly, the positive impact on prices tends to increase with time, as the growth impulse from looser financial conditions filters through.”
Goldman’s cautiously bullish outlook echoes comments from other market watchers. Commodities are entering a fresh cyclical upswing aided by tighter supplies and an upturn in the global economy, Macquarie Group said earlier this month. Jeff Currie, formerly the head of commodities research at Goldman and now at Carlyle Group, has also forecast gains as the Fed cuts rates. Elsewhere, JPMorgan Chase & Co. highlighted gold’s upside potential.
Among Goldman’s year-end price forecasts, copper was seen at $10 000 a ton, aluminum at $2 600 a ton, and gold at $2 300 an ounce.
Comments
Press Office
Announcements
What's On
Subscribe to improve your user experience...
Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):
Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):
All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors
including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.
Already a subscriber?
Forgotten your password?
Receive weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine (print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
➕
Recieve daily email newsletters
➕
Access to full search results
➕
Access archive of magazine back copies
➕
Access to Projects in Progress
➕
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA
R4500 (equivalent of R375 a month)
SUBSCRIBEAll benefits from Option 1
➕
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports on various industrial and mining sectors, in PDF format, including on:
Electricity
➕
Water
➕
Energy Transition
➕
Hydrogen
➕
Roads, Rail and Ports
➕
Coal
➕
Gold
➕
Platinum
➕
Battery Metals
➕
etc.
Receive all benefits from Option 1 or Option 2 delivered to numerous people at your company
➕
Multiple User names and Passwords for simultaneous log-ins
➕
Intranet integration access to all in your organisation