Global gold mine production growth will rebound in the coming years, underpinned by higher gold prices and mergers between large mining firms, says research firm Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research.
The firm expects global gold production to increase from 106-million ounces this year to 133-million ounces by 2029, averaging 2.5% yearly growth.
This would be an acceleration from the average growth of just 1.2% over 2016 to 2019.
Fitch Solutions forecasts China’s gold production to remain roughly stagnant between this year and 2029, with an average yearly growth rate of 0.2%. This is a notable slowdown compared with output over the previous decade.
The country’s gold output has been challenged by strict environmental regulations and the closure of smaller mines, and falling ore grades in general. Despite this, the country is expected to remain the largest global producer of gold ore by a considerable margin.
Australia’s gold sector is expected to see modest production growth over the next decade, supported by a strong project pipeline, rising gold prices and competitive operating costs. Fitch Solutions forecasts the country’s production will increase from 11.7-million ounces this year to 14.2-million ounces by 2029, averaging 2.2% yearly growth.
Russia’s gold production is expected to accelerate this year and next, as domestic demand for the precious metal is buoyed by the possibility of further Western sanctions on State banks, which will respond by increasing their reserves of gold.
In the longer term, Fitch Solutions expects gold production to be supported by a healthy project pipeline.
The firm says Russia’s gold output is likely to growth from 11.3-million ounces this year to 15.5-million ounces in 2029. This would represent average yearly growth of 3.7% and Russia could overtake China as the world's largest gold miner in 2029.
The US gold mining sector is expected to continue to attract considerable mining investment activity supported by its history of gold exploration and known precious metal deposits.