Global gold mine production growth will rebound in the coming years, underpinned by higher gold prices and mergers between major mining firms, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research says.
Major mergers among global miners and an improving gold price outlook are likely to boost global mine supply in the coming quarters, it notes.
Fitch Solutions expects global gold production to increase from 106-million ounces this year to 134-million ounces by 2029, averaging 2.5% yearly growth.
That compares with the average growth of just 1.2% a year from 2016 to 2019.
Fitch Solutions forecasts China’s gold production to remain roughly stagnant between now and 2029, with average yearly growth of 0.2%, which it says is a notable slowdown on the average yearly growth of 3.1% recorded over the previous decade.
Australia’s gold sector is expected to see modest production growth over the coming years, supported by a strong project pipeline, rising gold prices and competitive operating costs. The country’s gold mine production is estimated to grow by about 2.2% a year, on average, from 11.7-million ounces this year to 14.2-million ounces by 2029.
Fitch Solutions expects Russia’s gold production growth to accelerate this year and next as domestic demand for the precious metal is buoyed by the possibility of further Western sanctions on State banks, which will respond by increasing their reserves of gold.
In the longer term, the firm expects gold production in Russia to be supported by a healthy project pipeline. The country’s gold output is expected to grow from 11.3-million ounces this year to 15.5-million in 2029, representing average yearly growth of 3.7%.
The US gold mining sector is expected to continue to attract significant gold mining investment activity, supported by the country’s history of gold exploration and known precious metal deposits.
The country’s gold output is estimated to increase to 7.27-million ounces in 2029, compared with a forecast 6.49-million ounces this year.
South Africa’s gold production is expected to decrease from an estimated 3.17-million ounces in 2019 to 2.98-million ounces this year; however, production is forecast to increase again to 3.07-million ounces in 2021.
Thereafter, the country’s gold mine production is expected to steadily increase, reaching a forecast 3.32-million ounces in 2029.