Global smartphone shipments continue to be impacted on by slowing demand and setbacks in China, with an updated forecast for the worldwide smartphone market from the International Data Corporation (IDC) showing a more prolonged recovery than previously expected.

According to IDC’s latest Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecast, shipments of smartphones will decline 9.1% to 1.24-billion in 2022, a 2.6 percentage points reduction from its previous forecast.

A recovery of 2.8% is still anticipated in 2023; however, IDC reduced its 2023 smartphone forecast by about 70-million units, amid the challenging ongoing macroeconomic environment and its overall impact on demand.

“We believe the global smartphone market will remain challenged through the first half of 2023, with hopes that recovery will improve around the middle of next year and growth across most regions in the second half,” says IDC Worldwide Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers group VP Ryan Reith.

“Rising costs are an obvious concern for the smartphone market and adjacent consumer technology categories, but we believe most of this reduced demand will be pushed forward and will support global growth in late 2023 and beyond.”

He points out that a device refresh cycle continues in many challenged emerging markets, while developed markets have offset rising costs with increased promotional activity, more attractive trade-in offers and extended financing plans, which has supported growth in the high-end of the market, despite the economic headwinds.

Meanwhile, fifth-generation devices continue to grow globally, accounting for just over half of smartphones shipped worldwide in 2022, with expectations that this will increase to 80% by 2026.

Further, market momentum continues around foldable phones, he says, noting that, while this category only accounts for 1% to 2% of the global market in 2022, it still represents 15-million to 16-million smartphones.

“Despite the market slowdown, average selling prices (ASPs) continue to grow as consumers opt for premium devices that can last three to four years as refresh rates elongate in both developed and emerging markets,” adds IDC Worldwide Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers research director Anthony Scarsella.

“Smartphone ASPs are expected to grow for the third consecutive year as average selling prices will reach $413, up 6.4% from $388 in 2021,” he says, pointing out that the last time the market witnessed ASPs surpassing $400 was in 2011, when the figure was $425 and the market displayed over 60% shipment growth.

“Moreover, iOS unit share will reach 18.7%, the highest of any forecast year, which is a driving force behind the high ASP growth we currently see in 2022.”