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Global mobile subscription growth slows

30th August 2019

By: Natasha Odendaal

Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

     

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While mobile subscriptions continue to grow significantly, there will be a slowdown in the pace of future growth, the GSMA highlights in its latest report.

Since 2013, the number of new subscribers has increased by one-billion, representing an average yearly growth rate of 5%.

With about 700-million new mobile subscribers expected by 2025, the growth rate will slow to 1.9% between 2018 and 2025, which will bring the total number of mobile subscribers to 5.8-billion, with a 71% penetration rate.

By the end of 2018, 5.1-billion people worldwide subscribed to mobile services, accounting for 67% of the global population, the ‘Mobile Economy 2019’ report shows.

“Of the 710-million people expected to subscribe to mobile services for the first time over the next seven years, half will come from the Asia-Pacific region and just under a quarter will come from sub-Saharan Africa,” the report notes.

According to the ‘Mobile Economy sub-Saharan Africa 2019’ report, released last month, sub-Saharan Africa will remain the fastest-growing region, with an additional 167-million subscribers over the period to 2025, representing a compound yearly growth rate of of 4.6%.

This will take the total subscriber base to just over 600-million by the end of 2025, compared with the 456-million unique mobile subscribers recorded in sub-Saharan Africa during 2018.

Nigeria and Ethiopia will record the fastest growth rates between now and 2025, at 19% and 11% respectively.

Globally, the connectivity gap also continues to close, with the GSMA predicting that, over the next seven years, 1.4-billion people will start using the mobile Internet for the first time.

This will bring the total number of mobile Internet subscribers globally to five-billion.

By the end of 2018, 3.6-billion people were connected to the mobile Internet, a 300-million increase on 2017, the ‘Mobile Economy 2019’ report reveals.

However, the report points out that more than four-billion people remain offline, one-billion of whom are not within the footprint of mobile broadband networks.

Meanwhile, mobile technologies and services generated $3.9-trillion of economic value, or 4.6% of gross domestic product (GDP), globally during 2018.

This will reach $4.8-trillion, or 4.8% of GDP, by 2023 as countries increasingly benefit from improvements in productivity and efficiency brought about by increased take-up of mobile services, data shows.

In sub-Saharan Africa, mobile technologies and services generated 8.6% of GDP, after adding $144-billion in economic value.

This will increase to nearly $185-bil lion, or 9.1% of GDP, by 2025.

The global mobile ecosystem also supported almost 32-million direct and indirect jobs globally and raised more than $500-billion for the public purse through general tax.

Almost $15.6-billion in tax was raised in sub-Saharan Africa.

The sector also supports about 3.5- million jobs across the continent, with almost 1.2-million of the direct 1.7-million jobs within the mobile ecosystem informally involving the distribution and retail of mobile services.

Meanwhile, fourth-generation (4G) networks globally surpassed 2G networks during 2018, with 3.4-billion connections accounting for 43% of global connections, excluding licensed cellular Internet of Things.

In 2019, 4G will account for more than half of all network connections and, by 2023, it will account for 60%, the GSMA notes.

This year, 3G will overtake 2G to become the leading mobile technology in sub-Saharan Africa, with just over 45% of total connections by the end of 2019.

Edited by Martin Zhuwakinyu
Creamer Media Magazine Managing Editor

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