As mobile-cellular pene- tration rates are expected to reach saturation levels by the end of 2014, new research released by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) shows that developing countries are leading the uptake of mobile and fixed-broadband subscriptions, and Internet use.

According to the ITU, mobile- cellular growth rates have reached their lowest-ever level, growing at 2.6% globally, which indicates that the market is approaching saturation levels; however, mobile-cellular subscriptions are expected to reach nearly seven-billion by year-end.

“The increase is mostly due to growth in the developing world, where mobile-cellular subscriptions will account for 78% of the world’s total . . . with 3.6-billion [of these mobile subscriptions] in the Asia-Pacific region,” the organisation says.

Africa and Asia-Pacific, both of which have the world’s lowest penetration rates, will have the strongest mobile-cellular growth, reaching penetration levels of 69% and 89% respectively by the end of 2014.

The report points out that penetration rates in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) – the region with the highest penetration – the Arab States, the Americas and Europe have already reached levels above 100% and are expected to grow at a muted 2% in 2014.

Meanwhile, growth in fixed-broadband penetration, which is slowing in both developed and developing countries, will have a global penetration of 10% by year-end, while mobile-broadband penetration is approaching 32%, the ITU notes.

Mobile-broadband penetration in developed countries is expected to reach 84% – four times higher than that of developing countries at an expected 21%.

The ITU comments that Europe holds the highest mobile-broadband penetration levels at 64%, followed by the Americas at 59%, the CIS at 49%, the Arab States at 25%, Asia-Pacific with 23% and Africa at 19%.

However, despite this, 55% of the 2.3-billion mobile-broadband subscriptions expected by year-end will emerge from the developing world.

Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific and Europe record 44% and 25% respectively of all fixed-broadband subscriptions, compared with Africa, which accounts for less than 0.5% of the world’s fixed-broadband subscriptions.

“Despite double-digit growth over the last four years, penetration in Africa remains very low,” the firm points out, adding that, in addition to Africa, the Arab States and CIS are the only regions with double-digit fixed-broadband penetration growth rates.

Further, while home Internet access is approaching saturation levels in developed countries, it continues to climb in emerging economies, as more than 90% of the people who are not yet using the Internet are from the developing world.

By the end of 2014, the number of Internet users globally is expected to reach nearly three-billion, with Internet-user penetration rising to 44% globally – 78% in developed countries and 32% in developing countries.

Despite Africa’s continued household Internet access double-digit growth rates, only about one out of ten households will be connected to the Internet, compared with the more than one out of two households in the CIS.

However, almost 20% of Africa’s population will be online by the end of the year, compared with the 10% registered in 2010.

Europe will boast the highest Internet penetration, at 75%, followed by the Americas, where close to two out of three people will be using the Internet by year-end.

As 2015 approaches, one-third of the Asia-Pacific population will be online, representing about 45% of the world’s Internet users.