Scientists at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) are working on developing high-resolution predictive and observational capabilities to support decision-making in South African territorial seas and its exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

This will assist South Africa in reaching the Operation Phakisa goal of growing the oceans economy by R20-billion by 2019.

To reach this goal, South Africa will acquire high-resolution earth observation and forecasting capabilities to provide the right information at the appropriate scales for the entire EEZ.

CSIR oceanographer Dr Björn Backeberg says the current models used to predict oceanic processes are too low-resolution to provide accurate information in support of risk and disaster management in oceans.

“The CSIR is currently capable of modelling the big picture of oceanic processes, but the capabilities to provide high-resolution, usable information of the EEZ and territorial seas is currently lacking,” he explains.

He adds that the highest economic value marine domains are those closest to the coast – where there is the greatest human activity and infrastructure, “but currently these domains are poorly served”.

“South Africa is not generating any information on those parts of the ocean because the capabilities and model development to do so does not exist. Therefore, the CSIR’s investment in high-resolution ocean modelling and earth observation capabilities represents very high economic and scientific value,” he says.

This initiative will add value to both the CSIR’s Earth System Model and the Operation Phakisa-related Oceans and Coastal Information Management Systems (OCIMS).

It will also deliver new capabilities, jointly delivering to large marine services and climate change projects.

The outcomes for OCIMS will support ocean-state forecasts for maritime operations, oil spill and trajectory modelling, storm surge predictions, water quality and related products at bay-scale resolution, and enhanced ocean biogeochemistry observations.

For the Earth System Model, which is also a national priority, this initiative will deliver high-resolution, downscaled models for regional climate change projections, and predictive assessments of marine environmental trends such as marine ecology and carbon sequestration.