The global copper market is bracing for a significant positive shift driven by growing demand, with Central Africa emerging as a key player to step up supply, says analytics and insights firm Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Vidhya Sreelalan. This growth is driven by the region’s good copper grades, favourable capital intensities and improving infrastructure.

Africa is expected to contribute to roughly half of the global growth of copper by the end of this decade, with the continent’s base case mine production expected to grow by 32.8% between now and 2029.

The major contributors to Africa’s copper growth include Ivanhoe Mines, Zijin Mining Group, Crystal River Global and government of Democratic Republic of Congo- (DRC-) managed joint venture Kamoa-Kakula mine in the DRC, the ramp-up at copper major First Quantum Minerals’ Kansanshi mine in Zambia, copper and cobalt producer Tenke Fungurume’s mine (co-owned by CMOC and Gecamines) of the same name in the DRC, and gold and copper producer Barrick’s Lumwana Expansion in Zambia.

Sreelalan says brownfield projects, such as mine expansions in the DRC and Zambia, will have lower capital expenditure than greenfield projects in the near-term future owing to already-in-place permits and infrastructure for these types of operations. Greenfield projects may be delayed as a result of their inherent higher capital intensities and the required establishment of political relationships, unlike brownfield developments which possess established experience, she says.

“It is becoming increasingly difficult for greenfield projects to navigate the environmental, social and political risks and to get permits on time and within budget. Every delay adds to the cost of building the project.”

However, she argues that the Copperbelt region of Central Africa is a resource-rich region and mine developers there are inclined to invest in greenfield projects, especially when mature geographies are struggling to find newer deposits, let alone high-grade deposits.

While Central African projects face unique challenges, Sreelalan says regional projects offer attractive opportunities for investors, with the region offering “exceptional grades”. Globally, on average, she says, capital intensities have crept up to close to $30 000 t/y of copper for greenfield copper projects, while brownfield developments are seeing capital intensities averaging about $18 000 t/y of copper.

When Africa is compared to other global copper-producing regions such as Chile and Peru, as well as to emerging districts such as Argentina, she says, “the African Copperbelt wins on grades; [it has] exceptional grades.”

Chile not only has declining ore grades, but it also cannot build any greenfield developments without investing in big desalination plants for water requirements; while in Peru, social issues remain, forcing mining developers to invest heavily in negotiating with communities to attain a social licence to operate, according to Sreelalan.