PERTH (miningweekly.com) – Australian export revenues could grow at around 7% a year between 2013/14 and 2017/18 to A$294-billion, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) predicted on Wednesday.

In its latest 'Resources and Energy Quarterly', the government unit reported that a substantial increase in bulk commodity export volumes, particularly in iron-ore and liquefied natural gas (LNG), and a lower Australian dollar exchange rate, would be the main factors driving export revenue growth.

BREE predicted that total export earnings from mineral and energy commodities would increase by 11% year-on-year in 2013/14, with mineral exports delivering A$122.7-billion in revenue and energy commodities A$76.1-billion.

While the prices for most commodities were expected to be moderate over the outlook period, the substantial growth in export volumes would support export earnings, BREE stated.

During 2013, Australia’s iron-ore exports were forecast to increase by 16% on the previous year, to 570-million tonnes, supported by higher production from companies such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, and the ramp-up of Fortescue’s Chichester Hub and Solomon Hub expansions.

Iron-ore exports would increase further, at an average rate of 8% a year between 2014 and 2018, to 847-million tonnes by 2018.

Meanwhile, total gas production was slated to increase by a yearly rate of 22% to reach just over 159-billion cubic meters by 2017/18. In 2011/12, Australian gas production was 55.8-billion cubic metres and increased by 5.7% to 59-billion cubic metres in 2012/13. Gas produced for LNG production in 2012/13 accounted for around half of Australia’s total gas production.

BREE predicted that LNG exports would remain at about 24-million tonnes during 2013/14 but would increase to 31.1-million tonnes by 2014/15. Following the start-up of all plants currently under construction, Australian LNG export volumes would increase to 83-million tonnes by 2017/18.

Furthermore, thermal coal exports were also seen increasing by 8% during 2013, to 184-million tonnes, as recently completed projects came on-stream.

This export rate would further increase by 8% a year to 271-million tonnes by 2018, with the growth supported by increased demands from China and, later, from India. By 2018, both China and India were expected to overtake Japan as the top two export destinations for Australian thermal coal.