Big job losses seen as Australian mining shifts to production phase
PERTH (miningweekly.com) – While Australia’s mineral output and revenues were set to increase as the A$450-billion in mining investments entered production, between 50 000 and 75 000 jobs would be lost in the sector within the next three to five years, new analysis from ANZ has shown.
The ANZ research indicated that iron-ore export volumes would increase from 490-million tonnes to around 870-million tonnes by 2020, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would increase from 23-million tonnes to nearly 88-million tonnes in the same period, making Australia the world’s largest exporter of LNG.
The higher commodity export volumes would boost growth, while the increased export revenue would improve Australia’s external accounts, ANZ revealed, despite the high rates of foreign ownership.
The bank noted that the large contribution to growth from mining exports would provide a solid offset to the drag from the decrease in mining investment on a pure national accounts basis; however, national impact and employment would be negatively affected.
Mining investment was expected to fall 14% in 2014, 22% in 2015 and a further 22% in 2016.
The decrease in investment would see employment in the mining sector fall as the production phase of the resource boom was expected to be less labour intensive, with ANZ predicting that up to 75 000 jobs would be shed in the industry over the next few years.
While the investment phase of the resources boom generated a large number of jobs, there were significant difficulties in gauging its magnitude, ANZ reported, pointing to Reserve Bank estimations estimating that between 2005 and 2012 employment grew by some 250 000 in the resource sector, on the back of the increased investment.
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