Amid political unrest in Belarus, which has impacted on many industries with strike action and with as many as 200 000 people having taken to the streets in protest, comes the possibility for new and upcoming potash miners to contribute more and play a bigger role in contributing to global supply, says potash developer Emmerson CEO Graham Clarke.

He has spent the past 35 years operating and developing potash mines, including the Woodsmith project, in the UK, which Anglo American acquired from Sirius Minerals in March.

The unrest in Belarus, which is the world's second-largest potash producer, has impacted on the country’s potash mines, with many mineworkers on strike, seemingly in an effort to effect political change in the country. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, who was re-elected in August, has been President since 1994.

This situation has the potential to disrupt the international potash market as Belarussian producers dig into stockpiles to fill immediate supply deficits. However, Clarke says, as those stockpiles decline, the value of other available potash will increase and could even result in the price of potash rising.

“With the strikes and unrest in the country, it has had an impact and their ability to continue to produce at the rates they have historically been able to,” Clarke tells Mining Weekly, adding that the situation casts doubt for major customers in the short to medium term.

“This will open customers up to alternative suppliers.”

Currently, global demand for potash is at the low end of the commodities cycle, with impacts also being felt as a result of Covid-19 disruptions. However, he says, most farming activities around the world have continued operating through the Covid-19 pandemic, thereby resulting in steady demand with no sign of further deterioration.

“[Demand for potash] will pick up again fundamentally when there is an increase in demand for fertiliser,” adds Clarke.

In this regard, he points out that that Emmerson’s low capital expenditure, high-margin Khemisset project, in Morocco, is ideally located to service major markets in Europe, North and South America and Africa.

The project has a large 2019 Joint Ore Reserves Committee-compliant resource estimate of 537-million tonnes, at a grade of 9.24% potassium oxide and significant exploration potential with an accelerated development pathway.

The company states that this unique positioning means the project will receive a premium netback price, compared with existing potash producers.

The Khemisset potash project is currently under development, with a feasibility study having been released in June.

According to Emmerson, the project has the potential to be among the lowest capital cost development-stage potash projects in the world and also, as a result of its location, one of the highest-margin projects.

“We are in the process of doing the environmental studies prior to submitting our application for an environmental permit. There has been a slight delay in some of that work as people have had trouble in accessing the site. By early 2021, we should have all necessary permits in place.”

Emmerson aims to start construction towards the end of 2021. The construction phase will last about two years.

According to the feasibility study, the project's economics include a post-tax net present value of about $1.4-billion using industry expert Argus’ price forecasts.

Meanwhile, Clarke says Covid-19 has had very little impact on the development of the project, with the small core team remaining on site and continuing work.

Once in production, which is targeted for 2024, the mine will have a throughput of about six-million tonnes a year to produce 800 000 t/y of potash. Emmerson plans to mine the ore using decline shafts, with the mineralised horizon located at about 450 m below the surface.

Currently, Emmerson has sufficient capital to continue with more technical work to complement the feasibility study.

The next stage of development will involve raising funds so the company can start detailed front-end engineering design for the construction of the project.

“Our intention is to go to market next year to raise capital to build the project. We are looking for about $400-million,” he says.

With the resources it has discovered, the Khemisset mine will have a life of 19 years. However, Clarke notes that there is further exploration to be done and he is confident the company can further extend the mine's life.

“A key advantage for the project is that, even with the prices as low as they are, we are still very profitable because of the low cost of the operation,” he enthuses.