Despite intense power disruptions, no new wind turbines were connected to South Africa’s grid in 2022, the Global Wind Energy Council’s (GWEC’s) latest report has confirmed.

In 2021, South Africa recorded 668 MW of new wind installations, up from 515 MW in 2020, which increased the country’s overall installed base to 3442 MW.

GWEC attributed the decline to procurement delays, including delays to wind projects that were selected during Bid Window 5 of South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP).

Weak Outlook The immediate outlook has also been weakened by the fact that no wind projects were selected during Bid Window 6, which was launched in 2022. The GWEC says this is due to the unavailability of grid capacity in the provinces of the Eastern Cape, the Northern Cape and the Western Cape.

Meanwhile, wind connections across the Middle East and Africa also fell to only 453 MW in 2022. This was the lowest level of installations since 2013, with Egypt, Kenya and Saudi Arabia joining South Africa in not adding any new wind capacity last year.

The yearly wind market (onshore and offshore combined) declined in all regions except Europe in 2022, with a year-on-year fall of 17.1% to 77.6 GW.

However, GWEC expects the pace of installations to recover strongly, rising to 115 GW in 2023, during which the installed base is expected to breach the 1 TW level for the first time.

The GWEC also said it expects 680 GW of wind capacity to be added globally between 2023 and 2027, led by China and Europe.

It says that it

also expects a recovery in Africa and the Middle East, noting that North Africa and Saudi Arabia have large-scale projects on the horizon, while projects from South Africa’s Bid Window 5 will also begin coming on line.

“Annual growth is likely to bounce back in this region, reaching 5 GW in 2026 and 2027,” the council said.

“In total, 17 GW of new capacity is expected to be added in the next five years (2023–2027), of which 5.3 GW will come from South Africa, 3.6 GW from Egypt, 2.4 GW from Saudi Arabia and 2.2 GW from Morocco.”

Market Reforms

The report does not indicate how much of the additional capacity in South Africa will arise from the REIPPPP and how much will be delivered as a result of private power purchase agreements.

The second category is expected to play a more significant role following recent market reforms lifting the generation threshold on projects that can proceed without a licence and that can still use the grid to wheel electricity to related or unrelated buyers.