JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – A copper deficit of 88 000 t is likely in 2010 when the copper price may top $7 500/t, London base-metals consultancy GFMS forecast on Wednesday.

GFMS said that the 88 000-t 2010 deficit forecast was the result of a strong recovery in consumption and slower mine production.

It expected the deficit to grow to 121 000 t in 2011 and to 176 000 t in 2012, which would trigger additional investor interest.

Copper's cash quote had more than doubled to $6 419/t from $3 051/t and the downside potential was limited.

Strong Chinese consumption and an expected late-2009 recovery elsewhere would result in marginal growth for 2009 as a whole.

GFMS expected the copper surplus to drop to 245 000 t, from an earlier estimate of 441 000 t.

Fourth-quarter copper prices of $6 500/t would not be surprising during the current period of a shortage of concentrate.

The consequent decline in spot treatment charges was sending "bullish" long-term signals through the market.

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