Copper’s outlook under threat as economic risks pile up
Copper is under assault from various risks that threaten to undermine the prospects of the key metal needed to wean the world off of fossil fuels, according to CRU Group’s Vanessa Davidson.
Threats include “the possibility of lower GDP or industrial production triggered by geopolitical risks, high inflation becoming more embedded in the economy, or the effects of Covid-19 lasting longer than anticipated,” CRU’s director of copper research and strategy said Monday at a mining conference in Toronto. Other near-term risks include slower-than-expected takeup of green technologies, more scrap availability as well as substitution and reduced use of the industrial metal, she said.
Copper fell as much as 2.3% Monday on the London Metal Exchange, the most in a month, as commodities tumbled alongside US equities on increasing worries that Federal Reserve interest rate hikes will plunge the economy into a recession. The red metal is down 4.4% this year after soaring more than 25% in each of the previous two years.
Still, Davidson said copper’s long-term demand outlook remains intact—boosted by consumption in industries such as electric vehicles and clean-energy technologies.
“The green energy story should contribute significantly, adding additional two-million tons of copper demand by 2030,” Davidson said during her talk at the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada mining conference.
CRU’s latest forecast calls for global copper demand to rise 2.1% per year to 28.5-million metric tons by 2030, according to Davidson’s presentation. Copper usage from green energy is expected to account for 20% of total consumption by 2040, up from just 2% in 2015, she said.
“Without demand from green energy transition, global copper consumption will start to plateau around 2027 at around 25-million tons,” Davidson said.
Comments
The
content
you are trying to access is only available to subscribers.
If you are already a subscriber, you can Login Here.
If you are not a subscriber, you can subscribe now, by selecting one of the below options.
For more information or assistance, please contact us at subscriptions@creamermedia.co.za.
Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):
Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):
All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors
including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.
Already a subscriber?
Forgotten your password?
Receive weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine (print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
➕
Recieve daily email newsletters
➕
Access to full search results
➕
Access archive of magazine back copies
➕
Access to Projects in Progress
➕
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA
R4500 (equivalent of R375 a month)
SUBSCRIBEAll benefits from Option 1
➕
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports on various industrial and mining sectors, in PDF format, including on:
Electricity
➕
Water
➕
Energy Transition
➕
Hydrogen
➕
Roads, Rail and Ports
➕
Coal
➕
Gold
➕
Platinum
➕
Battery Metals
➕
etc.
Receive all benefits from Option 1 or Option 2 delivered to numerous people at your company
➕
Multiple User names and Passwords for simultaneous log-ins
➕
Intranet integration access to all in your organisation