The International Air Transport Association (Iata), the representative body for the global airline industry, warned on April 23 that the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the African airline industry was going to be significantly more severe than previously expected. The association called on African governments to support their airline sectors.

African airlines were now forecast to lose as much as $6-billion in passenger revenues, compared with 2019. This figure was $2-billion higher than the loses estimated at the start of April. Air passenger traffic for the whole of this year was likely to be 51% down on last year. The previous estimate was a fall of 32%.

The number of people in African aviation and related jobs who could lose their employment was now predicted to reach 3.1-million. This was half of all the continent’s aviation and related jobs, which currently totalled 6.2-million. The previous forecast was for two-million job losses. Africa’s aviation-supported gross domestic product could drop by $28-billion (from $56-billion last year). The previous prediction was for a fall $17.8-billion.

South Africa alone was forecast to see a collapse in passenger numbers of 14.5-million, with revenue falling $3.02-billion. Job cuts could reach 252 100 and the economy could lose $5.1-billion. For Nigeria, the drop in passenger numbers would be 4.7-million, with the loss of revenues coming to $0.99-billion, putting 125 400 jobs at risk. The hit to the Nigerian economy could be $0.89-billion.

Kenya and Mauritius would each suffer a passenger loss of 3.5-million. In the case of Kenya, this would lead to a revenue fall of $0.73-billion, while the figure for Mauritius would be $0.54-billion. Job losses in Kenya could reach 193 300 and, in Mauritius, 73 700. The hit to the economies would be $1.6-billion in Kenya and $2-billion in Mauritius.

Ethiopia would see a drop in passenger numbers of 2.5-million, with a $0.43-billion loss in revenues, endangering 500 500 jobs. The damage to the economy would be $1.9-billion. Ghana would suffer a passenger loss of 2.8-million, revenues would decline by $0.38-billion, 284 300 jobs would be put at risk, and the economy would suffer a loss of $1.6-billion.

For Senegal, passenger traffic would drop by 2.6-million. Revenues would fall by $0.33-billion, 156 200 jobs would be endangered, and the economy would take a hit of $0.64-billion. In the case of Mozambique, the loss of passengers would come to 1.4-million, the loss of revenues to $0.13-billion, and the number of jobs threatened would be 126 400. The loss to the economy would be $0.2-billion.

All these predictions were based on two main assumptions. Firstly, stringent travel restrictions for three months. Secondly, these restrictions would then be raised gradually, starting with domestic flights, then regional and finally intercontinental services.

“Airlines in Africa are struggling for survival,” alerted Iata regional VP: Africa and the Middle East Muhammad Al Bakri. “Air Mauritius has entered voluntary administration, South African Airways and SA Express are in business rescue, other distressed carriers have placed staff on unpaid leave or signalled their intention to cut jobs. More airlines will follow if urgent financial relief is not provided.”

The association praised several African countries for the steps they had taken to help the sector. Senegal had proclaimed $128-million in relief for its air transport and tourism sector, while Seychelles had waived all aircraft landing and parking fees from April to December this year. Côte d’Ivoire had waived its tourism tax on transit passengers. And South African airlines would benefit from the country’s panindustrial deferring of carbon, income and payroll taxes.

But Iata called for further help for African airlines. It requested direct financial support, tax relief, and loans, loan guarantees and support for the corporate bond market. It also called on development banks and other financial sources to support African air transport. The sector was, it warned, on the verge of collapse.