JP Morgan see gold prices crossing $4 000/oz by Q2 2026
JP Morgan sees gold prices crossing the $4 000 per ounce milestone next year, following increased recession probabilities amid boosted US tariffs and an ongoing US-China trade war, the bank said in a note on Tuesday.
The bank now expects gold prices to reach an average of $3 675/oz by 4Q25, on the way towards above $4 000/oz by 2Q26, with risks skewed towards an earlier overshoot of these forecasts if demand surpasses its expectations.
"Underpinning our forecast for gold prices heading towards $4 000/oz next year is continued strong investor and central bank gold demand averaging around 710 tonnes a quarter on net this year," the bank noted.
Spot gold, which has gained 29% and hit 28 record highs this year, touched the $3 500 per ounce milestone for the first time on Tuesday. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs raised its end-2025 gold price forecast to $3 700/oz from $3 300, noting that in "extreme tail scenarios," gold could plausibly trade near $4 500/oz by end-2025.
In terms of a potential bearish case for gold, an unexpected drop off in central bank demand remains the biggest fundamental risk, the bank said.
"More materially bearish would be a scenario where US economic growth remains extremely resilient to tariffs allowing the Fed to turn much more proactive in fighting inflation risks, prompting markets to price in hikes even before worrying inflation actually arrives," analysts noted.
JP Morgan also predicts greater headwinds for silver in the near-term given industrial demand uncertainty, while a "catch-up window" will open over the second half of 2025 with prices set to rise towards $39/oz by 2025-end.
Article Enquiry
Email Article
Save Article
Feedback
To advertise email advertising@creamermedia.co.za or click here
Research Reports
Projects
Latest Multimedia
Latest News
Showroom
Sweet-Orr, established in 1871, is a global leader in superior protective workwear, known for quality, innovation, and performance.
VISIT SHOWROOM
ESAB South Arica, the leading supplier of high-end welding and cutting products to the Southern African industrial market is based in...
VISIT SHOWROOM
Announcements
What's On
Subscribe to improve your user experience...
Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):
Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):
All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors
including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.
Already a subscriber?
Forgotten your password?
Receive weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine (print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
➕
Recieve daily email newsletters
➕
Access to full search results
➕
Access archive of magazine back copies
➕
Access to Projects in Progress
➕
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA
R4500 (equivalent of R375 a month)
SUBSCRIBEAll benefits from Option 1
➕
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports on various industrial and mining sectors, in PDF format, including on:
Electricity
➕
Water
➕
Energy Transition
➕
Hydrogen
➕
Roads, Rail and Ports
➕
Coal
➕
Gold
➕
Platinum
➕
Battery Metals
➕
etc.
Receive all benefits from Option 1 or Option 2 delivered to numerous people at your company
➕
Multiple User names and Passwords for simultaneous log-ins
➕
Intranet integration access to all in your organisation
