Russia's Nornickel expects a global palladium market deficit at 100 000 troy ounces and a global nickel market surplus of 37 000 t in 2022, it said on Monday, downgrading both estimates from its February forecast.
Western sanctions imposed on Moscow after it sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on February 24 have not targeted Nornickel, the world's largest producer of palladium and high-grade nickel, so far.
"Russian nickel exports have not been affected, and Nornickel continues to fulfil all contractual obligations," it said in its updated market review.
"It is important to remember that the exclusion of Russian nickel from the trade system would be disastrous for the London Metals Exchange and the global nickel market as Nornickel's share in high-grade nickel production was about 20% in 2021," it added.
In 2023, Nornickel expects the market surplus to widen to 103,000 tonnes of nickel - mainly in low-grade nickel - due to the start of new production capacity in Indonesia.
In February, the miner expected the global palladium market deficit at 300,000 ounces and the global nickel market surplus of 42 000 t in 2022.