The availability and affordability of fifth-generation- (5G-) capable devices and 5G network coverage will impact on the expected mass uptake of 5G services.

The deployment of 5G gathered momentum in 2019, and 2020 will mark the year that the latest technology becomes well established and the number of 5G mobile connections surpasses 100-million by the end of the year.

However, uptake will be skewed toward certain regions as device availability and network coverage vary significantly between different countries and regions, a new report by Analysys Mason notes.

The first mobile 5G services were launched in April 2019 by South Korea’s three operators, followed closely by Verizon, in the US, with the first 5G handsets more widely available from mid-2019.

Many operators in other regions, including Europe and the Middle East, also subsequently launched mobile 5G services, with Chinese operators launching the service at scale by November.

By the end of the year, 50 operators had launched services in 27 countries, with most offering mobile services, the report highlights.

By the end of this year, North America and Asia-Pacific will account for over 85% of 5G connections.

South Korea, in particular, has been a pioneer, with over 6% of mobile connections in the country using 5G by November, as the market was aided by government investment, the early release of suitable spectrum and close cooperation between the three national mobile network operators and local device and equipment manufacturers, notably Samsung.

Despite some early network launches in developed countries such as Italy, Spain and the UK, take-up in Western Europe will lag behind North America and the developed countries in the Asia-Pacific region, Analysys Mason notes.

5G will account for more than 50% of active mobile connections in North America and developed Asia-Pacific by 2024, while emerging markets will lag behind significantly, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, where only South Africa will launch services before 2021.

The lack of availability of spectrum is causing a bottleneck in some countries, and network roll-out in Europe is also likely to be slower than in other developed regions.

Further, the 5G device market will vary by region.

Compared with North America, smartphone replacement cycles are significantly slower in Europe, while the distribution of smartphone sales by price band is also more skewed towards the lower end in Europe.

“Countries with a higher share of iOS devices are also likely to have slower growth initially, because the first 5G-capable iPhones are not expected until late in 2020,” the company points out.

In addition, Analysys expects weaker demand from consumers to upgrade from fourth generation (4G), which was deployed across most developed markets between 2010 and 2013, compared with third generation (3G).

5G has an “experience premium” over 4G, but it is less pronounced than it was for 4G over 3G.

“New use cases such as cloud gaming are expected to push the performance requirements of mobile networks, but they are not currently driving the market to the extent that video drove 4G,” it says, further noting 5G’s push to market at a much later stage of the smartphone adoption curve than 4G.