Central banks bought far less gold at the start of the year than previously thought, and while demand has since rebounded, their purchases are expected to decline this year, according to the World Gold Council.

Central banks only bought 57 t in the first quarter, 187 t less than previously thought, the industry group said in a report Thursday. That’s the weakest start to a year in well over a decade, according to WGC data, and the revision means the overall pace of purchasing this year is likely to fall below 2025.

The original estimate had reassured bulls that the institutions — a key driver of bullion’s multiyear rally — were returning to the market in force to buy after prices dropped from an all-time high. The metal has lost about a quarter of its value since the Iran war began in late February, as higher energy costs stoked inflation concerns and pushed back expectations for interest-rate cuts.

A large share of the central-bank buying captured in the WGC’s estimates isn’t disclosed by monetary authorities themselves. Consultancy Metals Focus calculates the estimated purchases on behalf of the council using a combination of public data, trade statistics and field research.

Central-bank demand nevertheless recovered sharply between April and June, totaling a net 289 t, a record amount for a second quarter. Poland was the top buyer with 51 t, which took its first-half purchases to 82 t. China bought 33 t in the quarter.

After slumping from a record set in January amid concerns about tighter monetary policy, gold has found support near $4 000 an ounce since late June, with investors buying on dips around that level. Higher borrowing costs are typically a headwind for non-yielding gold.

Other highlights of the WGC’s quarterly report:

* Gold-backed exchange-traded funds saw outflows of 45 t in the second quarter.
* Bar and coin demand fell about 3% year-on-year to 307 t.
* Jewelry demand slipped 17% to 278 t, the lowest since the pandemic.
* Recycled supply dropped 6% to 326 t.