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GOLD OUTLOOK
Gold 'not cheap', but no bubble either
 
25th September 2010
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TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – Market watchers at this weekend's Cambridge House Resource Investment Conference were by and large in agreement on Saturday that the price of gold, which reached above $1 300/oz for the first time on Friday, is not in a bubble.

That said, financial commentator and editor of The Grandich Letter Peter Grandich added that the metal could no longer be described as “cheap”.

“That doesn't mean you go out and sell it, it doesn't mean that the rally is over, but I don't think it's cheap any more,” he commented.

Grandich correctly forecast the price of gold would reach $1 300/oz this year, and is predicting that the metal will hit $1 500/oz in 2011.

One of the things to look for is when forecasters that have been repeatedly correct in predicting higher gold prices, start turning bearish, Grandich commented.

“We haven't seen the atypical indications of sentiment where tops and bubbles are created,” he said.

“And so I believe gold will continue to work higher.”

Frank Holmes
, the CEO of US Global Investors, agreed that gold was not in a bubble.

“If you take a look at previous cycles, super cycles, we're far from it,” he said.

“If gold were to go to 1980 prices like most commodities have gone to, gold would be over $2 300/oz,” Holmes commented.

He said that the price was being supported on the one hand by 'price makers' - the central banks and investors buying the metalas an alternative to stocks, other assets and even currencies amid concerns over quantative easing, but also by 'price takers', as the traditional gold-buying season in Asia is now in full swing.

“And when you get the gold makers and the gold takers standing in line at the same time, you get huge spikes in the price of gold.”

Speaking later on Saturday morning, the Midas Letter's James West said he expects to see gold “solidly” over $1 300/oz by the end of this year.

“The only bull market for the next two to five years that I can see coming is gold, and all things related to gold – precious metals, platinum-group metals” West commented.

He expects to see the price rise to $1 300/oz, $1 400/oz and even $1 500/oz at some point.

“Even if it just continues with the trend of an average $87 a year price increase...there is nothing to indicate that this upward trend that has been happening for ten years is going to change.”

One analyst who is likely to disagree with the 'not in a bubble' camp is Kitco's John Nadler, who was scheduled to speak at the conference later on Saturday and on Sunday.

Nadler was quoted in the Globe and Mail newspaper on Saturday as warning that the strong flows of hedge fund money into gold, and increasing media attention the metal is getting, suggests that the rally may be on shaky footing.

“It’s a mania that smells like a bubble,” Nadler was quoted as saying.

Edited by: Liezel Hill
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Hi Bob, I believe that gold may have a modest correction sometime soon, maybe next week, maybe next month. However, it will continue to move higher and a few months from now you will be kicking your behind for selling, unless of course you decide to get back in. My guess is you won't, because it's not going to drop as much as you think and you will be watching from the sidelines.
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Lucky Howie on 28th September 2010
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The only people that truly understand gold know its just a matter of time and the real problems pushing gold higher can only be temp. reversed because of a false 12-24 month confidence boost, remember all paper is to foreign nations is a belief in trusting the future value of the unit of question.Therefore the lost paper values of the dot com bust and the credit crisis because of homes now overvalued by 10 trillion in US assets alone cant gain most of the lost values until wages increase to justify the higher prices.Something has to soak up much of that lost value either in universal assets (inflation in raw materials and energy) or actual assets in the united states that requires dollars to buy (houses and stocks) since the stock market was supported by high wage workers that have been exported away replaced either by nothing or a lower wage unable to support a new bull market able to substain even 1999 or 2007-08 prices in real value without wage inflation.The only benifit we do have is holders of dollars need a real alternative paper currency and we are far away from Europe or China replacing it.The best idea out there is gold since it can soak up the most value without as much damage as base metals or oil,which has the best chance of holding off huge rises in inflation.Just because the US is experiencing a possible deflation in the middle class the money has gone to other economies and any excess money has gone into gold, Even if gold falls ,you can bet the central banks will step in so you have to pay even more if your not quick enough to buy any gold non paper you decided to sell.REBUILD THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR FAST!!
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bryan on 26th September 2010
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i have been a buyer of gold since 850 dollars an ounce i sold all on friday as big big correction coming next week...equities are to cheap and have much more long term value than gold as the recovery gets under way....there is no inflation in the economy to worry about either.....
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bob on 26th September 2010
 
 
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