By the end of 2023, nearly one in five of all global mobile subscriptions will be fifth-generation (5G) subscriptions, as growth has proved to be resilient, despite continued economic challenges and geopolitical unrest in some markets.

This is according to the latest Ericsson Mobility Report, which forecasts that there will be 610-million new 5G subscriptions in 2023, representing a 63% increase on 2022, bringing the global total to 1.6-billion, about 100-million more than previously predicted.

Accounting for 18% of all mobile subscriptions, 5G coverage is expected to be available to more than 45% of the global population by the end of the forecast year.

“With more than 600-million 5G subscriptions added globally this year, and rising in every region, it is evident that the demand for high-performance connectivity is strong,” says Ericsson executive VP and head of networks Fredrik Jejdling.

“The roll-out out of 5G continues and we see an increasing number of 5G standalone networks being deployed, bringing opportunities to support new and more demanding applications for both consumers and enterprises,” he continues, noting that 5G will become the dominant mobile access technology by subscription in 2028.

During 2023, service providers continued to deploy 5G, despite a weaker global economy and geopolitical uncertainties, with about 280 service providers globally having now launched commercial 5G services, and more than 40 having deployed or launched 5G standalone services.

The most common 5G services launched by service providers for consumers are enhanced mobile broadband, fixed-wireless access, gaming and some augmented reality- and virtual reality-based services.

The November 2023 edition of the report further forecasts that global 5G subscriptions will increase by more than 330% from 1.6-billion at the end of 2023 to more than 5.3-billion at the end of 2029, with a penetration rate of 85% and making up 58% of all mobile subscriptions at that time.

North America and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are expected to have the highest regional 5G penetration rates by the end of 2029 at 92%, with Western Europe forecast to follow at 85% penetration.

The uptake of 5G subscriptions in North America continues to be strong, and is expected to have the highest 5G subscription penetration globally at 61% in 2023, while in North East Asia, penetration is predicted to be 41%, followed by the GCC countries at 34% and Western Europe at 25%.

“Further,5G subscription growth has also been strong in India throughout 2023. At the end of 2023 – fourteen months after its commercial launch – 5G penetration is expected to have topped 11% in India.”

In sub-Saharan Africa, total mobile subscriptions are projected to increase 3% year-on-year for the next six years to 1.1-billion in 2029, of which 760-million (67%) will be smartphone subscriptions.

Fourth-generation subscriptions will account for 49% of the total subscriptions in 2029, up from 35% in 2023, as access to lower-priced smartphones and data services increases across the region.

Second-generation subscriptions will maintain a significant share of total subscriptions at 27%, mostly owing to the region’s largely rural population, for whom broadband coverage is limited and smartphone affordability is a challenge.

In addition, 5G will be the fastest-growing subscription type between 2023 and 2029 at 60% a year, accounting for 16% of mobile subscriptions in the region at the end of this period, with 180- million 5G subscriptions projected.

“More than a dozen countries – which, with the exception of Nigeria, are mostly in Eastern and Southern Africa – now have 5G services available,” the report points out.

Meanwhile, 5G’s share of shipped smartphones continues to grow and is expected to account for 62% in 2023, compared with 57% in 2022.

Over 1 000 5G smartphone models have been launched in total, with more than 240 so far in 2023.

Further, the global average data consumption per smartphone continues to grow, with predictions of an increase from 21 GB/month to 56 GB/month between 2023 and 2029.

Total mobile data traffic is estimated to grow threefold between the end of 2023 and end of 2029, owing to improved device capabilities, an increase in data-intensive content and continued improvements in the performance of deployed networks, the Ericsson Mobility Report outlines.

“The rate of data growth in mobile networks clearly reflects consumers’ passion for enhanced mobile broadband-related applications,” explains Ericsson Mobility Report executive editor Peter Jonsson.

“This trend will increase in pace as more consumers worldwide embrace 5G and new use cases emerge, triggering further growth in data traffic,” he concludes.