Both Australia and South Africa may experience a wetter than normal summer, as the possibility of a La-Nina event increases. Combined with the high level of atmospheric water from melted Arctic ice, coal miners may be hoping for rain-induced supply disruptions at operations and ports to counter the ongoing global demand destruction.
Meanwhile, European coal stocks are dropping as gas prices continue an impressive rally. Coal production and cargoes bound for ARA are lower as miners from the US, Australia, Indonesia, and Colombia all experience production cuts.
China remains the one bright spark for coal demand, but the country seems determined to boost its own domestic production instead. India’s Prime Minister, for his part, would love for India to export coal.
Eskom has lifted its force majeure on coal supply contracts to Medupi and Matimba. This aligns with government’s move to a Level 2 lockdown, opening most of the South African economy again, and possibly also increasing coal burn to meet higher demand.
However, most of the winter heating demand has now subsided and the next seasonal issue as always is the rainy season with potentially wet coal handling issues.