Financial coal markets enjoyed a relatively stronger week as some price consolidation occurred on API#4 around the $52.70 level. However, the physical discount also narrowed leading to slightly weaker RB1 prices, even as major mining houses such as Anglo and Glencore announced significant production cuts for 2020.
Anglo is expecting a reduction of up to 20% for 2020. State-run Coal India is meanwhile pushing Indian power generators to keep buying domestic coal, as it focuses mainly on overburden removal, to try and reduce utility stocks at mines and plants which have reached record high levels.
Oil, gas and carbon prices have stabilised somewhat with European power markets still weak, leading to negative spark and dark spreads in places. The coal forward curve steepened over the past few weeks, a function of both the dramatic fall in spot prices, as well as the rolling of spreads to later tenors.
Weak ZAR forward prices also assist for producers able to hedge. In an escalation of its trade and currency wars, China is launching its own digital currency, the eRMB, which could eventually become a significant event for commodity traders used to pricing in USD.